# Method for statistical prognosis of equipment characteristic

FIELD: equipment characteristics prognosis technologies.

SUBSTANCE: device provides forming of statistical model for prognosis of characteristics of equipment. Device gets input data, in form of equipment parameter, which includes multiple values, appropriate for parameter. Input data is inputted into model and data set is formed, appropriate for model response to input data, equations system if formed being a model of equipment characteristic, received data is statistically processed for forming probability image of equipment characteristic.

EFFECT: higher efficiency.

6 cl, 4 dwg

The level of technology

The invention relates to a method for predicting the characteristics of the equipment and, in particular, to the use of statistical methods, and models to predict the expected distribution characteristics of the equipment as a function of the variability of the input data. One method for predicting the characteristics of the equipment based on the application of the model of point definitions of input values. The result is a series of point definitions representing a single value for a set of input values. Point definitions used to model equipment, implement, for example, with the aid of a computer. The model generates a single-point response representing the predicted characteristics of equipment.

The disadvantage of this method for predicting the characteristics is that the actual equipment characteristic is a more precise set of values based on a set of input values. Use this method to get many responses would be voluminous task. This task would include statistically variable input variable input in the model, the operation model, the entry point of the response and the subsequent repetition of the process for the next aggregate the input data. As you can imagine, to complete this RA is the notes with an acceptable resolution would have to spend a lot of time and effort.

The invention

An exemplary implementation of the invention is directed to a method for predicting the characteristics of the equipment. Receive input data representing a parameter of the equipment. The input data include a set of values corresponding to the parameter of the equipment. The input data is introduced into the model to form a set of data corresponding to the response of the model to the input data. Derive the system of equations, representing the totality of the data. The system of equations is statistically processed to generate the probabilistic representation of the characteristics of the equipment.

Brief description of drawings

Refer now to the drawings, in which similar elements have the same numerical designation on multiple drawings, in which:

figure 1 depicts a block diagram of the method for predicting the characteristics of the equipment, in an exemplary implementation of the invention;

figure 2 depicts a block diagram of a method for predicting the characteristics of the equipment in an exemplary implementation of the invention;

figure 3 illustrates the probabilistic response when using the set of input data;

figure 4 illustrates the probabilistic response using an alternative set of input data.

Detailed description of the invention

Figure 1 shows the structural diagram illustrating the procedure of predicting the characteristics of the equipment in an exemplary implementation of the invention. As shown in figure 1, the input data is introduced into the scheme of experiments (DoE), which runs through computer software and used to predict the characteristics of the equipment, usually called the model 22.

In the exemplary implementation shown in figure 1, the model is a thermodynamic model that represents a characteristic of a steam turbine. It is obvious that the invention may be applicable to a variety of models and is not limited to steam turbines. The term equipment refers to different objects, including vehicles (e.g., turbines) and articles of manufacture (for example, a turbine blade). The input data 20 represent the distribution of input values, but not the only input variable. The distribution of input values corresponds to the equipment, such as characteristics of the equipment (for example, dimensional data) or input equipment (e.g., fuel consumption). Model 22 includes an expected set of input values and the result of the model is a large set of data that describes the multi-dimensional surface representing the characteristic of the equipment.

A set of data created by the model represented by the system of equations 24, shown in the form of the function f (x), by fitting a series of equations to sovocool the data. Essentially, these equations are used to describe the model output 22 (e.g., machine code) in algebraic expressions, so you can easily use statistical software and spreadsheets. Once the machine code is converted to a system of equations 24, builds a model 25, based on equations 24, by location of equations 24 in the spreadsheet. After building the model 25 is used the statistical program 26 (for example, analysis by Monte-Carlo) to complete the process. Statistical program 26 provides a description of each input parameter in the form of a statistical distribution and control of any relevant output variable. Performing statistical program 26 provides for the adoption of a statistically correct values for these input distributions, holds value composed of equations and traces the resulting distribution on the output variables. Modeling is usually done for 10000 iterations and response with high resolution.

The execution result of the statistical program 26 is a probabilistic response 28 in the form of a distribution or set of output values and statistics corresponding to the number of output values. Shown as an example in figure 3 and 4 is STATISTICA includes the average value, the median, standard deviation and variance. Probabilistic response 28 provides a powerful tool for optimizing the design characteristics. The interaction and influence between input parameters and output parameters can be easily defined, so you can find the true optimal design. By using distributions of the input data 20, and not individual points, you can understand what the tolerances on the input variables to achieve the desired output.

Figure 2 shows the block diagram of the process of predicting the characteristics of the equipment in accordance with an exemplary implementation of the invention. At operation 30 receives input data representing the distribution of input values. At operation 32, the input data is included in the model equipment. As noted above, the model can have many forms, such as the simulation of the operation of the machine or the modeling characteristics of the object. When the model operation 32 creates a set of data, and for operations 34 shows the system of equations for the approximation of data sets. Equations derived at operation 34, are used to create the model 36 and operations 38 aggregate equations. Statistical processing at operation 38 leads to probabilistic response, which includes the allocation of the giving and statistics for each output value.

Let us now describe the application of an exemplary embodiment of the invention to a steam turbine. Was performed in the process shown in figure 1 and 2, with the General model of a steam turbine and here is the results. For this example was used seven input data 20 (the gap between the guide and the rotor blades, the gap of the shaft seal, square holes for turbine wheel, the thickness of the trailing edge of the nozzle, the area of the throat of the nozzle, the minimum cross-section of the blade and the coefficient of turbulence (half-DoE 22) to create aggregate data used for derivation of the equations 24. Also for this study were simulated input data 20 as having a normal distribution of values with limits ±3σ and ±1σ. As described below with reference to figure 3 and figure 4, the use of two different limits for the input data illustrates the importance of the impact of changes in input data on the distribution of the output.

Figure 3 and 4 shows a frequency histogram generated in accordance with the present invention for the output value (labeled uint32_t) for the input distributions restricted to specified limits ±3σ and ±1σ respectively. 3 and 4 illustrate that the probabilistic response 28 is in the form of the distribution. When using the present invention, the result is a distribution, not detachedly response. In the present invention are actual known distribution of input values to obtain the expected distributions of the projected values.

Creating probabilistic response in the form of distribution facilitates the understanding of the effects of changes in the input parameter. Figure 3 shows the distribution with a standard deviation of 0.11, while in figure 4 the standard deviation is increased to 0.5. This change in variation is important and usually not accounted for, using the above-described single-point method. In addition, the present invention takes into account the variation of the distribution of individual parameter to assess the benefits of process improvement.

As noted above, the invention may be applicable to other types of equipment. For example, the model can provide a medical clamp, and the input data can represent the statistical distribution of the sizes of the clamp and the output of the probabilistic response may represent a voltage clamp. The present invention will allow the user to change the manufacturing tolerances on the input data and see the impact on the statistical distribution of the voltage clamp.

The present invention can be implemented in the form performed using computer methods and devices for implementing these methods. The present invention can be also R is alisoun in the form of machine code, contains commands that are placed on physical media, such as floppy disks, CD-ROMs, hard drives, or any other machine-readable storage medium, when loaded into the computer's machine code and executes it, the computer becomes a device for carrying out the invention. The invention can also be implemented in the form of machine code, for example, or stored in a storage medium, loaded into and/or executed by a computer or transmitted through some medium, such as air line or cable, through an optical fiber or via electromagnetic radiation, when loaded into the computer's machine code and executing it by the computer, the computer becomes a device for carrying out the invention. When implemented on a universal microprocessor segments of machine code form the configuration of the microprocessor to create specific logic circuits.

The invention provides probabilistic response with high resolution (compared to single-point answer) and reduces the amount of time required to complete the process. Analysis input distributions in contrast to the entry point provides more optimized calculation and appreciation is nnow resistance to changes in components. Thus, the invention leads to a more thorough analysis of the system, with the result that he becomes more accurate and complete.

While the invention has been described with reference to a preferred implementation, specialists in the art should understand what can be done various changes and its elements can be replaced by equivalents within the scope of the invention. Additionally, there may be proposed numerous modifications to adapt a particular situation or material to the idea of the invention without going beyond its scope. Therefore, it is assumed that the invention is not limited to a particular implementation, is presented as the best way to implement this invention, but that the invention will include all implementation within the scope of the invention covered by the present claims.

1. The device for implementing the method for predicting the characteristics of equipment such as a steam turbine or a medical clamp, the method encoded in the form of a machine readable code on the recording medium, and when loading the recording media in the above-mentioned device and performing the said program code mentioned device implements the following operations: receive (30) of the input data representing the parameter of the equipment is being transported, moreover, the input data include a set of values corresponding to the parameter of the equipment; enter (32) of the input data in the model, representing a steam turbine or a medical clamp, and form a set of data corresponding to the response of the model to the input data, and the above-mentioned data set describes a set of data representing characteristics of the equipment, derive (34) the system of equations representing the said set of data is statistically processed (38) the above system of equations to generate the probabilistic representation of the characteristics of the equipment, create a model (25) in the spreadsheet in response to the above system of equations

moreover, the above-mentioned stage aggregation perform the above mentioned model in the spreadsheet.

2. The device according to claim 1, characterized in that when deriving the system equations are approximated equation to the data set.

3. The device according to claim 1, characterized in that, when aggregated implementing the program of Monte Carlo.

4. The device according to claim 1, characterized in that the said set value limit specified limit.

5. The device according to claim 1, wherein said probabilistic representation of the hardware characteristics of yavlyaetsyasredstvom output values.

6. The device under item 5, wherein said probabilistic representation of the characteristics of the equipment includes statistics corresponding to the above distribution.

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