Method for epidemiological zoning by complex of indices with random volumetric accuracy for management decision support system
SUBSTANCE: invention refers to medicine. The method characterised by the fact that a chosen territory map is covered with regular-hexagon cells equal in area; the epidemiologically significant findings are aggregated on the base by spatial addition; the findings are recorded in an attributive cell table and processed, so secondary parameters are derived, including: the number of patients, total length of an epidemic period, population, rate of growth of the number of patients; thereafter, the cells having related values are clustered; a degree of epidemic risk - maximum, moderate and low - is calculated for each cluster; that is followed by building an epidemic risk map and zoning the territory by combining the clusters; the high epidemic risk clusters include the cells having the maximum values, and the moderate and low risk clusters include those with the medium and minimum values.
EFFECT: increasing the epidemiological zoning accuracy.
2 dwg, 1 tbl
The invention relates to medicine, in particular epidemiology, and can be used to assess the epidemiological situation and planning sanitation and anti-epidemic measures.
Epidemiological zoning is to differentiate areas according to risk of complications epidemiology.
The basis laid zoning evaluation criteria and comparison areas on one or several indicators.
The known method of epidemiological zoning of the territory, which consists in counting the incidence of administrative territories, allowing to rank the areas and to prioritize the activities of epidemiological surveillance . However, the use of this type of zoning is only one characteristic - morbidity (or the absolute number of patients) as a basis for zoning, makes the assessment of the epidemiological risk devoid of time and group settings, and does not consider the influence of risk factors. In addition, the boundaries of natural foci of infectious diseases often do not coincide with the boundaries of administrative districts, which makes zoning uninformative.
The known method of epidemiological zoning by analyzing several �nazimah epidemiological indicators for the description of the administrative districts. A measure of the significance of epidemiological indicators is computed by experts, namely the expert on the basis of grading assessment determines the importance of individual indicators based on their own experience [2, 3]. When selecting indicators for the zoning currently the parameter "number of patients" is the most succinct integral expression of epidemiological risk (on site), however the correct use of this parameter can be provided comparable compare areas by area and number of population. As an indicator, which determines the exposure of risk factors, is used the number of years the registration of patients in this administrative district or for the portion of the territory. In this approach, the sum of the years in which it was registered, at least one patient.
The disadvantage of this method of zoning is the subjectivity of the expert assessment regarding the significance of individual indicators and, consequently, a low frequency of occurrence method when using the opinions of other experts. In this case the expert has to compare the diverse magnitude. For example, to determine the ranking of areas according to the risk of acute intestinal infections, the proportion of households having no sanitation, twice �agree, than the proportion of people without access to Central water supply. In addition, the disjunction administrative territories by area, the number of resident population, landscape structure and population density leads to loss of important information when calculating the average (aggregated) indicators and the impossibility of a correct comparison areas.
In addition, this method has a low resolution in the most significant range of values of high epidemiological risk because of the limited accuracy of the method determine the exposure, because the same number of years of registration for many of the areas with different and high epidemiological status of this figure is the same (maximum).
The object of the invention is to provide a method that allows to objectively rank the investigated area according to the degree of epidemiological risk.
The technical result is to increase the informative, objective assessment of epidemiological risk and the accuracy of epidemiological zoning.
The technical result is achieved in that the electronic map of the study area is covered with a grid of equal-area cells in the form of regular hexagons, obtained on the basis of the spatial connection�Oia aggregated information on epidemiologically important indicators, when this data is written into the attribute table of cells with their subsequent processing and calculation of additional indicators: number of patients, the total duration of the epidemic period, the population, the rate of growth in the number of patients, further cells with similar values together in clusters, for each cluster calculate the degree of epidemiological risk (high, medium, low; with subsequent epidemiological risk mapping and zoning of the territory by merging clusters.
The method is as follows.
At the first stage of the territory is covered with a grid of equal-area cells with a size comparable with the average settlement. The advantages of coating the territory polygons of the same size are clarity, greater spatial accuracy, the ability to use absolute indicators of epidemiological risk and the possibility of varying the dimensions of standard sections.
The choice of optimal parameters of regular coatings for effective zoning in epidemiological risk is to justify the square of the standard of the site and its forms. The traditional way of subtyping on-site standard parcels can be considered the division into square areas, lines which pass VD�l of Parallels and meridians, each of which is optionally improve the accuracy is divided into four equal sections.
This method of division is convenient for its simplicity and can even be implemented without the use of computer technology. However, from the point of view of spatial analysis, square mesh has two major drawbacks. First, the size of these standard sections are not the same at different latitudes, because as the distance from the equator to the poles, the plots are becoming a trapezoidal shape and their size decreases. Secondly, the Central point of the square cells are at different distances from the centers of neighboring cells.
These features square mesh important from the point of view of spatial analysis, as they contribute to distortion in the calculation of objects or phenomena that are geographically located diagonally with respect to the grid.
From the point of view of spatial analysis, the optimal form of coverage to account for the environment of the point object is a circle. However, a solid regular coating with the use of a circle has area double crossing that distorts the accounting for settlements and patients located in this zone.
In this regard, the proposed use is closest to the circumference and thus lacking the disadvantages of a square grid, the solid form regularly�about coverage consisting of regular hexagons.
When building a layer of regular hexagons determining parameter is the length of the rib that defines the area of the shape. The choice of the length of the edges is carried out based on the prevailing conditions of contamination sampling epidemiological survey maps and can range from 2-5 miles for one subject of the Russian Federation, up to 15-30 km at the zoning at the national level and between 30 km and more for the global coatings.
At the next stage through a spatial join in a geographic information system (GIS) on the basis of aggregated information on human settlements and the sick, and the data is written to the attribute table of the hexagons. This table is subjected to pre-processing to obtain indicators for clustering. The number of patients is obtained by summing all patients registered within the given hexagon. The total duration of the epidemic period is also determined for each hexagon by processing of dates disease patients. The population is calculated as the sum of the inhabitants of all settlements located within the cell. The rate of growth in the number of patients is calculated as the ratio of the number of patients for on�last year of observation to the long-term average (arithmetic mean for the five years which are not included last year).
After the described processing table takes a finished look, while the rows are marked with unique identifiers hexagons, and each column shows the number of patients, the total duration of the epidemic period, the population and the growth rates of the patients on this site.
The cell site with the specified attributes are objects clustering into 3 homogeneous groups characterized by different degrees of epidemiological risk. The basic idea and purpose of cluster analysis is classification (differentiation) of the sample of objects into subsets called clusters so that each cluster consisted of similar objects, and objects of different clusters differed significantly.
The similarity of the territories by the combination of features in the cluster is determined through a multivariate statistical procedure. The fundamental advantage of cluster analysis is the independence of the clustering results from the subjective opinion of an expert concerning the ownership of certain areas to certain risk categories.
Epidemiological interpretation of the significance of the obtained clusters is performed according to average values of the indicators and is that the parts of the territory, representing the maximum risk, relative�dynamism to the first group of cells, representing the maximum epidemiological risk for the population due to the long exposure of risk factors in relation to a large number of residents. The cluster is characterized by medium epidemiological risk, belong to the second group and the third group of cells with low epidemiological risk.
At the next stage, the mapping of epidemiological risk, i.e. the new data on the epidemiological status of standard plots are visualized using GIS, which is the result of the corresponding stage of zoning.
Method epidemiological zoning was tested on the example of the Astrakhan region.
For epidemiological zoning of the territory of the Astrakhan region in respect of epidemic manifestations of Astrakhan spotted fever map of the Astrakhan region with the help of GIS is divided into 12670 standard plots in the form of regular hexagons with an area - 5.9 km2and an edge length of 1.5 km. On the basis of aggregated information on human settlements and patients through a spatial join. Data on population, number of patients and duration of the epidemic period are recorded in the attribute table field of hexagons. Data aggregation for each standard and record the obtained value� in the destination table shown in Fig.1.
The table resulting from the aggregation of data is subjected to pre-processing to obtain indicators for clustering. The number of patients is obtained by summing all patients registered within a given hexagon. The total duration of the epidemic period is also determined for each hexagon by processing of dates disease patients. The population is calculated as the sum of the inhabitants of all settlements located within a standard plot.
After the described processing table takes a finished look, while the rows are marked with unique identifiers hexagons, and each column shows the number of patients, the total duration of the epidemic period and the population. According to the results of preliminary processing of 12670 standard plots the incidence observed in 223 and was held clustering. As a result of clustering 223 hexagons identified three homogeneous groups characterized by different degrees of epidemiological risk. Characteristics of the clusters are presented in table.1. According to the table to the first cluster assigned 9 standard parcels with an average specific number of patients 45±5 (mean ± standard. MIS.), the average total duration of the epidemic period 618±4 and the number of resident population of more than three thousand people in one area.
The second cluster is related 26 standard plots. This cluster was characterized by the average number of patients 18±1 to the site an average total duration of the epidemic period 320±14 days and a population of from one to three thousand people.
The third cluster included 188 standard sections, each of which registered an average of 3±0,2 patients, the average total duration of the epidemic period was 28±3, and the number of inhabitants did not exceed one thousand people.
Epidemiological interpretation of the significance of the obtained clusters is that the parts of the territory belonging to the first cluster, represent the maximum epidemiological risk for the population due to the long exposure of risk factors in relation to a large number of residents. The second cluster is characterized by the average epidemiological risk, and the third - lowest. Other 12447 standard plots, in which the incidence of EPL not previously reported, were described as minimal threat.
The final stage of the epidemiological zoning is visualization using GIS the resulting clustering of the data. Evaluating the profiles of the obtained clusters, it should be noted that the maximum epidemiological risk is identified for the territory, composing�th only 0.07% of the total area of the Astrakhan region. Fig.2 presents a map of the epidemiological zoning of the territory of the Astrakhan region, illustrating the desired areas with the highest, medium and low epidemiological risk.
Thus, the proposed method epidemiological zoning based on clustering of cells, characterized by high spatial accuracy through the use of a large number of cells instead of administrative regions. Maps of epidemiological risk, obtained by clustering of cells demonstrate a prognostic value, since they consider the tendency to rise or fall in the incidence. Epidemiological zoning on a range of indicators carried out by means of clustering, has an objective basis that determines its advantage over point-based risk assessment, which is Central to the expert opinion.
The method proposed zoning on the basis of these advantages, improves the process of decision-making in the area of defining the scope and priority areas for preventive and anti-epidemic measures.
1. Belyakov V. D. Modern aspects of the study of epidemic process in relation to zoonotic natural focal infections, Vestn. THE ACADEMY OF MEDICAL SCIENCES OF THE USSR. - 1980. - No. 10. - P. 15-19.
2. Prokh�B. B. s Medico-ecological zoning and regional forecast of population health in Russia. M.: Publishing house of Mr. Kostin. 1996. - 72 S.
3. Trofimov A. M., Zabotin Y. I., Panasyuk M. V., Rubtsov, V. A. Quantitative methods of zoning and classification. - Kazan: publishing house of Kazanski. Univ. - 1985. - 120 p.
|No. cluster||The number of patients||The duration of the epidemic period (days)||Population (thousands)||Risk||The number of parcels|
Method epidemiological zoning on a range of indicators with arbitrary spatial accuracy, characterized by the fact that the card selected is covered by a grid of equal-area cells in the form of regular hexagons; on the basis of the way spatial joins aggregated information on epidemiologically important indicators, while data is written into the attribute table of cells with their subsequent processing and calculation of additional indicators: number of patients, the total duration of the epidemic period, the population, the rate of growth in the number of patients, further cells with similar values together in clusters, for each cluster calculate the degree of epidemiological risk - maximum, average, low - with subsequent epidemiological risk mapping and zoning of the territory by merging clusters, while clusters with high epidemiological risk are the cells with the highest value of the index, middle and low, respectively, with the intermediate and minimum scores.
FIELD: measurement equipment.
SUBSTANCE: invention relates to a municipal water pipeline and sewerage system and is designed for determination of parameters of reliability and regular supply of water supply and water discharge networks. A system for determining parameters of reliability and regular safety of water supply and water discharge networks includes a unit of primary information processing, a calculation unit of reliability parameters of network components, a unit for determining probabilistic reliability parameters of the network, a unit for determining technological reliability parameters of the water discharge network, which is provided with a network modelling cell having a possibility of determining flow rate of emergency discharge qjmod of water discharge networks at deactivation of j section of the network.
EFFECT: improvement of efficient determination of parameters of reliability and regular supply of water supply and water discharge networks.
30 cl, 3 dwg
FIELD: physics, computation hardware.
SUBSTANCE: invention relates to authentication of the user and performance of payment transaction. Proposed device comprises processor, data carrier connected thereto and including the set of instructions. Execution of said instructions by said processor makes this device authenticate the user by registration of mobile device and communication of mobile device with the user payment account. Mobile device is registered is authenticated with the use of identification data issued by the user and related with payment account. Data initiating the payment transaction is received to define is payment transaction is initiated with the help of mobile device. Proceeding from the mobile device registration authentication payment transaction is authenticated for payment account with the use of mobile device.
EFFECT: higher rate of payment transaction.
41 cl, 6 dwg
SUBSTANCE: invention relates to devices for medical monitoring. The method contains stages at which: a packet (7) of data about a patient is transmitted from a device (10) for patient monitoring to the central server (12); a message (72) with acknowledgement (ACK), transmitted by the central server (12) in response to receiving by the central server (10) of the transmitted packet (70) of data about the patient, with a message with acknowledgement containing a time stamp, provided from the central server (12) clock (46), indicating the time and date, when the central server (12) received the packet (70) of the patient's data; the message time stamp (72) with ACK is compared with the current time of the clock (28) of the patient monitoring device (10); and if the difference between the current time of the clock (28) of the patient monitoring device (10) and the time stamp (74) with ACK is larger than the first preliminarily determined time, the clock (28) is synchronised in accordance with the time and date in the time stamp (74) in the message (72) with ACK.
EFFECT: provision of control of the time synchronisation interface.
13 cl, 5 dwg
FIELD: physics, computer engineering.
SUBSTANCE: invention relates to computer engineering and specifically to intelligent automated assistant systems. Disclosed is method of operating an intelligent automated assistant. The method is carried out in an electronic device having a processor and memory which stores instructions for execution by the processor. The processor executes instructions on which a user request is received, wherein the user request includes a speech input received from the user. Based on the representation of user intent, a plurality of relevant task parameters are identified for the task flow, wherein the plurality of relevant task parameters includes at least one task parameter explicitly expressed in speech input and at least one task parameter logically derived from context information associated with the speech input.
EFFECT: high accuracy of presenting a user with relevant information by taking into account task parameters logically derived from context information.
11 cl, 50 dwg, 5 tbl
FIELD: physics, computer engineering.
SUBSTANCE: invention relates to computer engineering. A method for electronic notary certification of text information, which includes preliminary registration of a contractor in an "electronic notary" system; when sending information by electronic mail, indicating in the "copy" field the address of the automatic "electronic notary" system; upon receiving a copy of the sent information, the automatic mail enters the copy into the personal accounts of the sender and the receiver with indication of the time of sending, the sender, the addressee of the information and all attachments comprising the information, wherein the automatic mail further notifies the addressee on the sending of information and storage of the certified copy of the sent information on the website in the personal account of the contractor.
EFFECT: confirming the sending of a document or file with indication of the date and time of sending via electronic mail.
FIELD: physics, computer engineering.
SUBSTANCE: invention relates to providing secure transactions in payment systems using bank cards. The technical result is the low risk of card transactions that are unauthorised by the card holder when the card is compromised. In the method of conducting authorised card transactions, the card holder changes said card parameters in advance to permitting parameters by sending an authenticated request to a processing centre of the issuer, thereby permitting one or more authorised transactions; an authorised transaction can be approved by the processing centre of the issuer only if card parameters permitting said transaction were established by an authentication request by the card holder.
EFFECT: present solution minimises the risk of transactions that are unauthorised by a card holder in any environment of using cards and is distinguished by the capability for use in existing systems for controlling authorised transactions.
3 cl, 5 dwg
FIELD: physics, computation hardware.
SUBSTANCE: invention relates to creation and operation of data base of vacancies and manpower resources. Search system for every selected data element defines its rating and processes data of data base and includes structuring in relational view of data on structure, terms and interrelations as to official characteristics with allowance for taxonomy and ontology of subject area as well as compilation of the rating of indices making the matrix and their ranging. Clients-physical persons define the priorities of criteria for fulfilled job and selection of a company. Besides, they enter the obligatory magnitude of criteria and varying ranged indices for selection of vacancies to be automatically processed by the system in scoring mode. For this, these are ganged after determination of their mean arithmetic value. Client-physical person defines the obligatory values of criteria and varying ranged indices for personnel selection. The latter are processed by the system in scoring mode. For this all candidates selected in compliance with used complex of search criterion after definition of their mean arithmetic value get the rating in the list of resumes of selected candidates for client-physical person the make the decision on.
EFFECT: accelerated search at ranging of data on personnel or vacancies.
8 cl, 1 dwg
FIELD: physics, computer engineering.
SUBSTANCE: invention relates to the field of optimisation of selection and delivery of products in a trading network. The system for the network optimisation implemented by the computer comprises: the first processor for data processing for data receiving and storage in data memory; the second processor for data processing for obtaining at least one input data for conditional dynamic options in a network; the third processor for data processing for obtaining at least one input data set for the specified network to define the specified chosen products with use of at least one optimised filters; the fourth processor for data processing for delivery of at least one of the named products at least to one of the named organisations participating in a trade network and the fifth processor for data processing for data recording relating to the named delivered products, in the data memory.
EFFECT: optimisation of selection of a product or service with reference to requirements of clients and ensuring dynamic integration of these requirements.
16 cl, 5 dwg
FIELD: physics, control.
SUBSTANCE: invention relates to computer engineering. A climate control device, having a network interface configured to receive a request to use the climate control device; transmit an authorisation request to a payment system in response to receiving said request; receive an activation message containing information associated with the payment system in response to the authorisation request; transmit a payment message to the payment system based on a plurality of usage parameters, wherein the payment message leads to the deduction of funds from the account of the user; a user interface configured to receive user input which identifies a climate control programme containing a temperature parameter, a humidity parameter, an ionisation parameter, a dryer parameter, an air purification parameter, a sound parameter and a fragrance parameter, wherein each of said parameters is associated with a corresponding one of a plurality of times, a plurality of durations and a plurality of set values; and a climate control subsystem configured to change the environment based on the climate control programme.
EFFECT: automated climate control on a confined territory.
13 cl, 1 tbl, 11 dwg
SUBSTANCE: invention relates to transfusiology and is intended for application in medical institutions in planning and transfusion to patient of preserved donated blood components. Method is realised with application of bar-coding technology, with formation of unified information and technological system, where databank of patients who have transfusions of donated blood components in anamnesis is maintained; transfusion plan, with respect to which available components of donated blood are estimated, is composed in accordance with operation plan, and request is sent to blood centre for missing volume of donated blood components, data about obtained blood components are automatically included into medical information system.
EFFECT: ensuring safety of transfusion of donated blood components.
7 cl, 18 dwg
FIELD: radio engineering, communication.
SUBSTANCE: method includes selecting characteristics of an equilibrium random process, which are considered as coordinates of phase space in which the equilibrium random process occurs; constructing, for the investigated equilibrium random process in accordance with a priori information about said process, an evolution-simulation model (ESM), which mutually indicates coordinates of the phase space, and loading the constructed ESM into the memory of a processor; selecting one of the calculated factors as the target factor and exclusion thereof from coordinates of the phase space; measuring, by corresponding sensors, characteristics of the investigated equilibrium random process and storing said characteristics in the memory of the processor as input signals for the ESM; finding specific values of the calculated factors for each allowable set of control actions and each moment of action; linking the sets of control actions with logical links; loading into the memory of the processor established logical links between control actions and limiting values thereof; finding, by using a dynamic programming algorithm for solving Boolean problems which is loaded into the memory of the processor, optimum control in the form of uniquely defined sets of control actions at each moment of action for the entire control period.
EFFECT: optimisation of control mode.
FIELD: information technology.
SUBSTANCE: device includes a system model unit, a system portion state simulator unit, a fault alarm generation unit, a recording unit, a model data verification unit, a model data correction unit, N≥2 of model element operating time controllers, the main operating time controller.
EFFECT: simulation of current states in the conditions inherent to the actual process of the studied system functioning, namely under conditions of the dynamical change of these states parameters with respect to influencing factors, higher reliability of the system fault-free operation and fault state identification taking into account a variable value of the operating time based on dynamically corrected values of the shift target execution time in each model element of the system portion.
3 cl, 12 dwg
SUBSTANCE: device comprises two clock generators, random number generator, unit calculating probability of mobile object detection, comparator unit, shift register, unit calculating dimensions of mobile object, unit calculating squared deviation in dimensions of mobile object, unit recognising type of mobile object, unit calculating coordinates of mobile object, memory register.
EFFECT: expanding functionality by simulating reconnaissance catalogue of different-type mobile objects.
SUBSTANCE: system comprises the first - nth (where n is a number of switchgear connections) current sensors for switchgear connections, the first - nth buffer scaled amplifiers, multi-input analogue switch, double-wave precision rectifier, ambient temperature sensor, square-wave generator, microcontroller, the first - nth temperature sensors for connection conductors, the first, second and third transceivers, digital indicator, read-only memory and computer.
EFFECT: expanding functionalities of the system due to potential continuous monitoring and recording of power losses at several connections of switchgear.
FIELD: physics, atomic power.
SUBSTANCE: invention relates to monitoring nuclear power facilities. The risk monitoring device comprises a memory device for storing at least one minimal fault cutset (MFC) array and probability values for each event in each MFC, and a data input device to input in the risk monitoring device data about status changes of the facility; a formation unit for forming at least one MFC matrix; a memory device for storing said at least one MFC matrix; a formation unit for forming at least one parameter matrix; a memory device for storing said at least one parameter matrix; a modification unit for modifying elements of said at least one parameter matrix; and a risk evaluation unit.
EFFECT: risk evaluation for a nuclear power facility.
13 cl, 2 dwg
SUBSTANCE: data recorder contains a current sensor, line voltage sensor, the first and second input converters, a microcontroller, an ambient temperature sensor, a conductor temperature sensor, a square-wave generator, the first and second comparator, the first, second and third receiver-transmitters, a digital data display, read-only memory, a computer.
EFFECT: expansion of functional capabilities due to continuous monitoring and registration of averaged values of power loss, line voltage and load current.
2 cl, 2 dwg
SUBSTANCE: invention relates to classification of biomolecular data. For this, classification system (100) is used. System input receives multiple attributes (102) of the sample to be classified and multiple appropriate error estimates (104). Statistical module (106) associates probability distribution density functions (108) with said attributes. Note here that appropriate probability distribution density functions depend upon error estimates. Replication module (110) generates multiple disturbed dummy treatments (112). Note here that attributes are arbitrarily disturbed in compliance with apt probability distribution density functions. Classifier (114) classifies disturbed dummy treatments on the basis of disturbed attributes. Analyser (118) classifies the sample to be classified proceeding from the analysis of classified dummy treatments (116) to produce classification (120) of samples.
EFFECT: higher reliability.
13 cl, 6 dwg
SUBSTANCE: according to the first version the unit contains the first-fourth current sensors (CS) for phases A, B, C and neutral wire N, the first and second temperature sensors, a square-wave generator (SWG), a microcontroller (MC), a register, a digital indicator (DI), the first and second receiver-transmitters, a read-only memory (ROM), a computer; according to the second version the unit contains the first-fourth CSs, the first-fifth temperature sensors, SWG, MC, a register, DI, the first and second receiver-transmitters, ROM, a computer.
EFFECT: expanding functionality of the unit due to permanent control and registration of power loss effect from each harmonic component of load current.
2 cl, 2 dwg
FIELD: information technology.
SUBSTANCE: apparatus includes a group of input registers, two display units, a maximum number selection unit, two groups of subtractor units, a group of squaring devices, three groups of delay elements, a group of adders, a square-root extractor, two groups of switches, a group of output registers, a clock pulse generator, a pulse distributor, a group of OR elements and S groups of registers.
EFFECT: broader functional capabilities by taking into account interaction with other structure levels, which increases accuracy and efficiency of estimation.
FIELD: information technology.
SUBSTANCE: device includes groups of input registers, input registers, groups of delay elements, switches, groups of cumulative adders, cumulative adders, groups of divider units, divider units, groups of output registers, output registers, registers, display units, groups of modulo subtractor units, groups of display units, a group of comparator units, groups of switches, OR elements, counters, a group of squarers, a group of digital inverters, multiplier units, subtractor units, square-root extractor units, NOT a clock pulse generator and a pulse distributor.
EFFECT: high objectiveness, reliability and speed of testing.
5 dwg, 4 tbl
SUBSTANCE: device has ADC, address multiplexer, memory block, combination adder, division block, counts number counter, control block, quality control block, indication block.
EFFECT: higher efficiency.
2 cl, 2 dwg