Method to forecast earthquakes. RU patent 2506612.
 System for determining water surface vibrations / 2503980System includes atmospheric pressure fluctuation receivers (microbarographs) 1.i (i= 1, 2, …, n), a comparator circuit 2, a notification system 3, a memory unit 4, first 5 and second 6 correlators, first 3.1 and second 3.2 analogue-to-number converters, first 3.3 and second 3.4 switches, a modulating code former 3.6, a master generator 3.6, a phase-shift keying device 3.7, a power amplifier 3.8, a transmitting antenna 3.0, multipliers 5.1 and 6.1, lowpass filters 5.2 and 6.2, optimal controllers 5.3 and 6.3, controlled delay lines 5.4 and 6.4. A control station 7 has a receiving antenna 7.1, a high-frequency amplifier 7.2, a heterodyne 7.3, a mixer 7.4, an intermediate frequency amplifier 7.5, first 7.6, second 7.7, third 7.11 and fourth 7.12 multipliers, first 7.8 and second 7.13 narrow bandpass filters, first 7.9 and second 7.14 lowpass filters, a recording and analysis unit 7.11, and first 7.15 and second 7.16 phase inverters. |
 Preparation method of structures perspective for prospecting and exploratory oil and gas drilling / 2502089Seismic measurements are carried out by means of a CDP method on the surface area perspective in oil-and-gas-bearing respect. Processing and structural interpretation of seismic data is performed, thus obtaining structural maps of target reflecting horizons. Based on structural maps, additional build-up of two-dimensional networks of target reflecting horizons is performed. As per the received two-dimensional networks of target reflecting horizons and using a trend analysis method, build-up of two-dimensional networks a regional component is performed for each reflecting horizon. A local component is calculated. For cells of the two-dimensional network of the local component the prepared structures are localised for each target reflecting horizon at simultaneous fulfilment of two conditions: first - when the local component is larger than zero, and second - when a zero contour is closed. A sum of local component is defined for all the target reflecting horizons. With that, the local structure is considered to have been prepared for all the target reflecting horizons when the value of sum of local component is larger than zero. For allocated localised structures for each reflecting horizon there calculated is local structure amplitude and local structure surface area. Priority of readiness degree of the structure prepared for prospecting and exploratory oil and gas drilling is determined as per the value of amplitude and surface area of local structure, and namely: the higher the above local structure values, the higher the perspective of prospecting and exploratory oil and gas drilling. |
 Method of hydrocarbon pool proceeding from principle of passive adsorption / 2499285Hydrocarbon gases are sorbed by means of nonexpendable sorbents-collectors in soil bores deep to at least 0.5 m. Note here that said sorbents-collectors at elevation of expected productive beds are located in dense grid with spacing of 250-400 m there between while, outside said elevations in loose grid, of 500-800 m. Samples are analysed to accuracy of 1 picogram to extract at least 150 hydrocarbons. Results of the analysis are compared with reference data. Said data is interpolated in algorithm of training and mapping system with the help of analysis of primary components, discriminate analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis. Adapted criteria are used to simulate deposit. |
 Method for short-term earthquake prediction / 2497158Optical density of the atmosphere is measured by a group of spaced apart photometers. Measurements are taken in spectral sections with wavelength 340, 380, 440, 500, 675, 870, 1020 nm. The behaviour of change in difference of the weighted average wavelength of the current solar spectrum and a reference solar spectrum is determined. The place, time and magnitude of the possible seismic impact is determined based on the determined behaviour. |
 Apparatus for investigating gas release on ocean bottom / 2494421Apparatus has a bottom container (1) with research equipment, which is equipped with means for hydroacoustic communication (2), radio communication (3) and navigation. The container (1) with research equipment is connected to the vertex of a cone-shaped gas-proof flexible (film-type) casing (5), the lower edge of which is mounted on a ballast metal ring (6), having an asymmetry ballast weight (7). The vertex of the cone of the flexible casing (5) is connected to the container (1) by casing release (4). The casing release (4) has a sealable opening for allowing gas from the top part of the cone-shaped casing (5) into the container (1) during operation of the apparatus at the bottom, preventing entry of water into the container (1) during emergence thereof. |
 Method of evaluating potential of exploration area for detection of diamondiferous kimberlite bodies in diamondiferous areas / 2492511Fault map of a diamondiferous area is constructed based on a system of geologic, tectonophysical, geophysical, geomorphological and other data. The entire area of the diamondiferous area is broken into equal square sub-areas (windows). For each sub-area, a fractal dimension (D) and information entropy (S) are calculated using computer programs that are based on B. Mandelbrot and C. Shannon fundamental algorithms. The set of obtained calculation data is used to construct the distribution pattern of values of the fractal dimension and information entropy in isolines while marking all known diamond deposits thereon. Potential of the exploration area is evaluated by comparing data obtained on said areas with predicted reference values of D and S for said kimberlite area that are typical for known diamond deposits. Local areas similar to areas of known deposits are selected and delineated as prospective for detection of diamondiferous kimberlite bodies based on the reference values of D and S. |
 Investigation method of surface areas that are potentially perspective for root sources of diamonds / 2488854When investigating surface areas that are potentially perspective for root sources of diamonds, correspondence of results of the conducted investigations of surfaces areas to a set of criteria is established. Mineralogical criteria: available minor minerals of diamond - garnets, chrome-spinelides, chrome-diopsides of lherzolite and dunite-harpburgite paragenesis, minerals of eclogite paragenesis, ore minerals, glasses and spherules. Geochemical criteria - diatremes of Tuffisites are fixed with complex lithogeochemical abnormalies both of sidero-lithophylous group and chalcophylic group. Tectonic criteria - within the section there widely spread are elements of thrust and fault tectonics; significant number of diatremes is associated with places of their intersection. Geomorphological criteria - elements of modern relief correspond to elements of thrust and fault tectonics, thus forming intermountain depressions. Geophysical criteria - diatremes are located in surface areas of development of low-resistance zones, negative magnetic field and local abnormalies of gravity field. |
 Method for automatic monitoring and forecasting of tectonic processes with selection of place and time of action on earthquakes and volcanoes / 2488853Test ground is determined for monitoring of tectonic processes. Wells are drilled and cased with plastic pipes. Then, an open shaft is drilled, which is located below zone of intensive surface water exchange and below the depth of constancy of seasonal temperatures, mainly in a lithologically consistent mass of dense (crystalline) mined rocks on the test ground. A measuring device is installed into the open shaft and the well is filled with viscous clay mud the heat conductivity of which is equal to heat conductivity of mined rocks at the measurement interval. Besides, the device is capable of automatic measurement at the specified time pitch of temperature gradients, transmission of measurement data to a surface unit and then to the investigation centre. There calculated as function U(τ) in real time (τ) is dependence of parameter U=gradT/gradT0 as ratio of the measured temperature gradient and its value during periods that are aseismic for earthquakes or inactive for volcanoes. Trend of the function is processed and forecast using known methods and considering the measured action of the Moon, the Sun and dynamics of atmospheric pressure. Forecast values of the parameter are added to continuously updated maps of the test ground and conclusions on development of tectonic activity are made. As per the data for the well closely located to the occurring earthquake focus on the test ground there continuously analysed is dynamics of the first and the second derivatives of the function trend, and considering their maxima, a favourable moment of external artificial action is determined near the occurring focus. |
 Method of monitoring bulk stress condition of environment in earthquake-prone region / 2487375Invention can be used when monitoring the bulk stress condition of the environment in an earthquake-prone region and forecasting strong earthquakes. According to the disclosed solution, in addition to continuous monitoring of seismoacoustic emission at internal points of the environment, observations are made in frequency and spatially spread channels, and extensive air showers and muons are detected. Correlation of the time of arrival of extensive air showers and muons with the time of arrival of seismoacoustic emission signals is established and localisation of seismoacoustic emission sources is also determined. The bulk stress condition of the environment is determined from amplitude, spectra and repetition frequency of seismoacoustic emission signals in background mode and seismoacoustic emission signals induced by muons. The sign of an approaching earthquake is the behaviour of the amplitude and spectrum of seismoacoustic emission typical for a given region and increase in repetition frequency of seismoacoustic emission signals. |
 Method for helium survey on water bodies / 2484503Water body is profiled. Water samples are collected from a given depth by sucking. The sample is fed for separation by a continuous stream. The gas phase of the sample is separated while discharging the degassed liquid. The gas phase of the sample is fed into a gas analyser. The desired gas is extracted from the gas phase of the sample. Its concentration in the sample is measured. The investigated area of the water body is mapped based on data on concentration of the desired gas. The desired gas used is helium. The gas analyser used is a membrane type helium leak detector. Water samples are collected near the bottom of the water body while controlling the depth at which the samples are collected. Helium concentration is measured by at least two helium leak detectors successively in cyclic mode. Duration of the measurement cycle is established based on the condition of excluding the effect of drift of the helium leak detector on the measurement. The interval between measurements in the cycle is established based on data on the geologic structure of the bottom of the investigated water body. Duration of each measurement in the cycle is selected greater than the period of time for measuring background concentration of helium in water. Background concentration of helium in the water is determined before profiling the water body. |
 Method of inspection of water area at reconnaissance of sunken wood / 2244323Water area is divided into 625 squares by Latin square method. Sunken wood is inspected in 25 non-intersecting squares and results are valid for entire water area. Latin square takes outline of water area being inspected. |
 Method of predicting probability of earthquake / 2244324Specific linear cloud anomalies are selected according to the method. Program realizes algorithm of calculation of fractal dimensions of cloud formation image. Correspondence of shape of identified linear cloud anomaly is estimated relatively reference linear cloud anomaly. Cross-correlation function bandwidth of images of current and reference linear cloud anomalies has to be characteristic of center of earthquake to be traced. |
 Method of screening of abnormal areas of earth radiation / 2244325According to the method dolomite broken stones or granules of synthetic polymers are placed in abnormal areas. Sizes of dolomite broken stones and synthetic polymers varies depending on object to be protected. |
 Hydrocarbon pool prediction method / 2244326Invention relates to geochemical methods of predicting hydrocarbon pools and can be used for local oil and gas prediction on supposedly perspective areas. In conformity with claimed method, samples of subsoil deposits are taken according to profiles crossing area being examined, after which they are calcined to determine calcinations loss. Samples are additionally examined for Eh and pH values, and secondary mineral formation composition. Presence in the depth of non-productive, productive, and water-oil contact zone is judged of from combination of above obtained values in samples. Eh values (taking into consideration corresponding pH values) are marked on the map of subject area according to sampling sites and comparable Fh values are connected by isolines so enabling reveal of non-productive, productive, edge hydrocarbon pool zones, and water-oil contact zone. |
 Global system for determination of probability of forthcoming earthquake / 2247412According to the claimed invention, cloud-cover images of the Earth in the infra-red band by space aids are obtained. Linear cloud anomalies are separated out of them by target designations of the space aids. The reflected luminous flux above the linear cloud anomalies are registered by two reception channels mutually orthogonal in polarization. A synthesized image matrix is formed, and its numerical characteristics are computed. The probability of an earthquake is predicted by the estimated performances. |
| Lithochemical method of mineral resources deposits exploration activity / 2247413 The invention is dealt with the mineralogogeochemical methods of mineral resources deposits exploration activity and is intended for detection of sulphidic mineralization. The method provides, that on a terrain in compliance with the given network from a representative horizon they take samples of eluvial-de-eluvial deposits in the form of gravelly-sand fractions of 200-300 g weight. From a dried material of samples using a double screening by bolters with holes of 2.5-3.0 mm and 0.5-1.0 mm separate a faction of size of (2.5-3.0) + (0.5-1.0) mm, which is exposed to a mineralogical analysis on the contents of chips and a wreckage of chips of sulphidic minerals. Results of the analysis are assessed and on their base a decision is taken on availability of a deposit. The technical result is an increase of content of the elements - indicators in the samples taken within the limits of the deposit and outside it. |
 Method for monitoring of atmospheric pollution and system for its realization / 2248595In the process of monitoring of polluted atmosphere, observation of the sorption layers of the water surface adjoining the serviced area, temperature, saltiness of the water basin are performed. Claimed also is a system for monitoring of atmospheric pollution, including a monitoring center with means for plotting the charts of atmosphere pollution fields, connected with its input and output to the atmosphere purity monitoring posts and the means of meteorological support, computing means of the forecast of scenarios, complex of laboratory examinations of sorption layers, complex of remote monitoring of the water surface with means of recognition of sorption layers. |
 Method for estimation of ecological state of subterranean waters / 2253883Method includes drilling surveillance and/or prospecting hydraulic-geological wells. Natural hydraulic-geological, hydraulic-chemical data are gathered and analyzed, concerning technogenic objects. Maps are built. Hydraulic-chemical data are used to build additional maps of hydraulic-geochemical heterogeneousness points of waters for each water-bearing level and technogenic objects waters. Mutual synchronization of maps is performed. Pollution source is detected as well as migration routes of polluting substances by calculation value of relative entropy. Estimation of level of ecological state of underground waters is performed. |
 Method of predicting parameters of earthquake / 2254599Method can be used for monitoring of environment. According to the method images of seismic center can be received from two polarization mutually orthogonal receiving channels. Synthesized image array if formed from pixel-to-pixel relation of signal amplitudes in polarization channels. Area of relief of synthesized array is calculated in relation to geometrical area of photograph and changes in the relation are traced by means of set of photographs made. Parameters of earthquake are predicted from numerical characteristics of relation to be traced. |
 Method for predicting earthquake parameters / 2255356According to method, characteristics of magnetic H and electric E fields of surface-adjacent space are measured using separate sensors, mounted on spacecraft, at ascending and descending coils. Synthesized measurements matrix H×E is formed and dispersion ς2 of resulting vector R is calculated as well as its fractal dimension D. change of fractal dimension is tracked to series of measurements. Constant conditions of tracked process are determined, time constant T and final value D0. earthquake parameters are predicted as: strike time ts=4.7T, magnitude lg ty[day]≈0.54M-3.37, and hypothetical center as point of intersection of vectors of descending and ascending coils. |
FIELD: measurement equipment.
SUBSTANCE: usage: invention relates to the field of seismology and is designed to study forecasting of earthquakes. Substance: surveys are carried out in the territory of a measurement polygon, for instance, urban agglomeration or a critical commercial facility, they determine M - magnitude, and t - time of earthquake by available monitoring surveys with equipment placed within the limits of the territory of the measurement polygon. Monitoring surveys on the measurement polygon are carried out with a network of seismology equipment from at least 4, preferably 10-14, three-component recorders of seismic oscillations, placed from each other at specified distances within the limits of the measurement polygon and simultaneously by equipment to monitor variation of water level in one hydrogeological well, besides, the water level in the hydrogeological well must react to lunisolar tides. Using seismic records from the source of seismic waves - distance earthquakes (at the distance of more than 2°), they establish magnitude of a future earthquake, and on the basis of reaction of a water-bearing horizon in the hydrogeological well to the effect of lunisolar tides they determine the time slot of the medium-term forecast, the start of short-term forecast, and determine the time of earthquake occurrence. The time of start of the time slot of the medium-term forecast is determined by the time t1 - start of stop of the reaction of water-bearing horizon to the effect of the lunisolar tide, and the time of start of the short-term forecast of the earthquake t2 is set on the basis of time of recovery of the reaction of the water-bearing horizon to the effect of the lunisolar tide. The moment of earthquake occurrence to relative to the time t1 is determined according to the dependence t0={[(t2-t1)+1]+(1+/-1)}, where time t0, t1 and t2 is defined in days.
EFFECT: determination of magnitude and time of an earthquake with accuracy of (+/-) 1 day for the measurement polygon territory.
2 cl, 5 dwg
The technical field to which the invention relates
The invention relates to Geophysics and seismology, and is intended for research of geodynamic processes of the geological environment, and earthquake prediction.
Description of the invention.
The level of technology.
Currently there are only a few cases of successful prediction of earthquakes, when simultaneously predict three heterogeneous parameter: time (t), a (x,y) and magnitude (M). Since there is no process for forecasting earthquakes, when simultaneously predict three parameters: time (t), a (x,y) and magnitude (M), consider the solution of the simpler task of predicting the two parameters.
Known, taken as a prototype, way of forecasting the earthquakes, based on determination of two of the three main parameters of earthquakes t - time (x,y) coordinates focal, M - a magnitude, which consists in the fact that for every (x,y) coordinates of the territory determine the maximum M - magnitude earthquake [1]. Thus believe that an earthquake with a magnitude of M happens once in a fixed time t, equal to 1000, 500 or 100 years.
Research into the development of the prototype method [1] is an independent scientific field called seismic zoning or long-term forecast of earthquakes. In several States, including Russia, map of seismic zoning are a decision-making and are the necessary basis for earthquake-proof construction in earthquake-prone areas.
Because in seismically active areas, not all the houses and other urban facilities were built taking into account the seismic construction, and not all of earthquake-proof houses can withstand the effects of seismic disaster, then currently needed, as a minimum estimate of the time of the devastating earthquake to save lives and prevent possible additional losses due to the exclusion of secondary factors of damage from earthquakes, fires, explosions of household gas etc.
Disclosure of the invention.
The comparative analysis of features of the declared and known solutions demonstrates its compliance with the criterion of «novelty».
The task for the claimed method, consists in determining the power and time of the earthquake on the specified territory known monitoring observations on the measuring range, equipment placed within a given territory of measuring the polygon.
Solution of this problem is provided by the fact that the method of earthquake prediction based on the determination of two of the three main parameters of earthquakes t 0 is the time (x,y) coordinates focal, M - magnitude, for the selected territory of polygon measuring, for example, for the territory of the urban agglomeration or important economic object, perform monitoring network of seismological equipment of at least 4, it is preferable 10-14, three-component Registrar of seismic vibrations placed each other at a given spacing within a measurement of the landfill and simultaneously equipment to monitor changes in level of water in one hydrogeological borehole, and the level of water in the hydrogeological borehole should react on the lunar-solar tides, and seismic records from a seismic source - distant earthquakes at distances of more than 2 degrees) establish the M - magnitude of future earthquakes, and by the reaction of the aquifer in the hydrogeological borehole at the impact of the lunar-solar tides set the time window of the mid-term forecast, the beginning of a short-term forecast and determine t 0 - occurrence of earthquakes; that the start time of the time window medium-term prediction of earthquakes determine the time t 1 started to terminate the reaction of the aquifer to the influence of the lunar-solar tides, what is judged by the absence of changes in water level in the hydrogeological borehole, and the start time, short-term prediction of earthquakes t2 set on the basis of the resume time of reaction of the aquifer to the influence of the lunar-solar tides on the water levels of the hydrogeological borehole, what is judged by changes in the level of water in the hydrogeological borehole, the time of occurrence of the earthquake to determine the dependence of
t 0 ={[(t 2-t 1 )+1]+(1+/-1)},
where time t 0 , t 1 and t 2 define in the day.
The technical result: determination of the magnitude and time of the earthquake with accuracy (+/-) 1 day for the territory of polygon measuring, for example, for the territory of the urban agglomeration or important economic object, monitoring observations within the selected area of the measurement of the polygon.
Brief description of drawings.
The invention is illustrated by drawings, where
figure 1 - seismic recording (gather),
figure 2 - the summation (accumulation) portions of the data, geological cross-section along the profile
figure 3 - the forecast of seismic activity in the form of a deep cut along the selected profile,
figure 4 - the forecast of seismic activity in the form of a map on the measuring range,
figure 5 - example of an entry in the hydrogeological borehole changes in water level.
Realization of the invention.
The newly introduced operations that provide a set of essential features achieve these qualitative properties as:
- the possibility, on the basis of the existing complex of technical means of continuous observations of the earth's surface for the selected territory of polygon measuring, for example, for the territory of the urban agglomeration or important economic feature, determine the magnitude M and records the changes in water level in one of the hydrogeological borehole within the territory of the measuring of the polygon time t earthquake with accuracy (+/-1) day;
- high efficiency of obtaining and processing of monitoring information;
- there is no need to determine the future earthquake.
Summary of the invention consists in the following. On the measuring landfill size, preferably 60 x 60 km 2 , place at least 4, it is preferable 10-14, three-component Registrar of seismic vibrations and conduct continuous seismic records.
At the exposition of the essence of the proposed invention used seismic records treated according to the technology under patent (Vasiliev S.V., Solodilov LN., VALERY Korobov Way of assessing the change in the stress state of the geological environment. Patent of the Russian Federation №2009124808 from 30.06.2009, issued 31.03.2011 by priority from 30.06.2009) [2]. A new data processing system called information-structural technology of processing of seismic data, abbreviated technology, and assumes that the information is systemic in nature and it is only in interaction. Seismology, as well as the seismic survey, based on the interaction of external energy (seismic pulse and the geological environment. In this case, the object of study is open non-equilibrium and non-linear system. This means that the wave seismic process is not only elastic deformation. Part of the energy of a seismic pulse scatters (dissipates only partially) in the geological environment with the transition into heat energy. This thermodynamic branch of the seismic process. With the removal of this part of energy from sustainable conditions arise patterns of self-organizing, evolving in time, which carry the information about the level of stressed state and its organization in space.
As in the wave process we are dealing with deformation, as control parameters in the study of the regularities of seismic energy can be used physico-mechanical properties of rocks, which change in time under the influence of changing voltage.
Source of information is the geological environment with its viscoelastic and -dispersed properties. The role of the media performs exchange seismic wave in which information is encoded on the changing tense through the change of physico-mechanical properties of the geological environment. Media always is the structure. Therefore, the information process is shifting patterns reasons (change of the stress state of geological environment on the structure of the investigation (seismic field). The problem is reduced to the discovery of such structures.
The founder of theory of dissipative structures and basic principles of nonequilibrium thermodynamics is a Nobel prize winner I. Prigogine [3-5]. The main parameter to describe the process of self-organization is entropy. A.N. Kolmogorov [6] for the first time (1976) introduced the concept of entropy of a single event that allows to consider the sequence of qualitatively different States of the system as a program, removing the uncertainty (algorithmic determination of the information). Dissipative structures are self-organization of energy with the sharp decrease in entropy in the system when you remove it from the equilibrium state [3-5].
Seismic data processing is carried out as follows. On the seismic records for further processing excrete metabolic wave (figure 1) from distant earthquakes (with distances of more than 2 degrees). Because the seismic signals from distant earthquakes come on measuring polygon almost vertically from the bottom, we can assume that all exchange waves, registered in the X,Y plane arise directly under and therefore carry information on the condition of geological environment under the measuring ground. At the beginning of processing the z component of each of seismic records from one earthquake register the time of the first entry longitudinal wave (Fig 1). Next choose the time interval of seismic records, such as 4 seconds, make the calculation of the energy exchange of the waves on the x-and y-components and is carried out by the summation (accumulation) for all registered seismic records from this earthquake.
Figure 2 shows the result of summation of energy alternating waves of the group (portions) of earthquakes, where summarised static (prognosis) and dynamic (effects of stress) part.
Then continue to the summation of energy exchange subsequent waves from earthquakes to the emergence of resistant amplitude of spatial inhomogeneities in the distribution of the energy of alternating waves (figure 3), which by definition are the elements of the structure of the seismic field, reflecting the information about the geological structure (geological cross-section) of a plot under the measuring ground, and what is the definition of level of background voltage.
And, further, as a result of monitoring observations obtain time series of similar structures in distribution of energy of alternating waves. By the deviation of the obtained structures from the level of background values of the judge about the change of the stressed state of the geological environment for the moments of time of receipt of each structure in the distribution of the energy of alternating waves. Largest relative stability of fluctuations of the energy distribution alternating waves - target useful signal, in turn, make judgments about the relative hazard of change in the stress state of the geological environment under the territory of the measuring of the polygon.
The target signal is represented in the form of the section (figure 4) in the coordinates (x,t), where x is the distance between on the measuring range, a t - time seismic records, and in area (figure 5) in the coordinates (x,y), and on the context (figure 4) and in area (figure 5) target signal is expressed in colours that reflect clearly the danger of a future earthquake.
The color scheme is the calibration scale to determine the magnitude of earthquakes within a measurement of the polygon. In this scale unit adopted energy exchange waves, which correspond to the background level, and the next and each successive color, corresponding to an increase of energy exchange waves in 3 times. If the epicenter of the future earthquake with the maximum possible magnitude of the region will be located in the Central part of the measuring polygon, you can get the maximum relative measure of the energy of alternating waves (and color) for calibration of the scale.
Within the territory of measuring polygon recorded earthquakes with magnitudes within M=(1-2,5). Them on the calibration scale correspond to the orange and green colors. Because these earthquakes, as well as registered near the polygon are not dangerous for constructions and life of humans, orange, green, the more red color on the records of the target of the useful signal are not the color of trouble. Although the scale in full experimentally not scaled, subsequent color scale of blue, dark blue and purple registered the target signal, respectively, will characterize the alarm and danger to human life and safety of constructions within the territory of the measuring of the polygon. Thus, in the proposed method of the forecast of earthquakes monitor the reaction of the environment within a measurement of the landfill and depending on the recorded values of the stress state (in the above calibration scale) are judging the intensity magnitude of the predicted earthquake.
Predictive time the future of the devastating earthquake, a more complex situation: even with your dependencies to determine the time of the earthquake on the observed magnitudes M=(1-2,5) difficult to transfer these dependencies on the forecast of the times for destructive earthquakes. Available experimental data on the definition of time of the earthquake on the observed magnitudes M=(1-2,5) show that the error in forecasting earthquakes time is 3 and more days.
To reduce the error in predicting the time of the earthquake, within the territory of polygon measuring simultaneously with the placement of seismological equipment Buryats one hydrogeological borehole within the territory of the measuring site and placed in it the set of the equipment to monitor changes in water levels and carry out continuous record of changes in water level. Hydrogeological borehole choice, in accordance with the invention (Vartanian G.S., E.A. Popov, V.O. «Method for evaluating the suitability of hydrogeological and geophysical object for observation for the study of the geodynamic processes». Patent of Russian Federation №13033957 from 23.04.1984,) [7], according to which it must respond to the lunar-solar tides.
Thus, in accordance with the invention, according to the results of seismic and reservoir monitoring equipment available on-site measuring of the polygon, in terms of its territory determine the rate, magnitude and time of the future earthquake with accuracy (+/-)1 day.
We also note that, in accordance with the experimental data [8], after the date of termination of changes in water level in the hydrogeological borehole an earthquake occurs not earlier than 7-10 days, which determines the time window of the mid-term forecast. Therefore, the proposed method, along with the registration of changes in the seismic regime, allows you to issue mid-term (7-10 days) about the level of seismic hazard in the measurement of the landfill and its nearest surroundings with the issuance of the forecast of earthquake hazard, i.e. after every data processing monitoring allows to answer the question whether or not there will be an earthquake in the area of measuring polygon in the coming (7-10) days, and, what is especially important, the only equipment in the territory of the measuring of the polygon.
These results suggest using the present invention creation of services safety of urban agglomerations and important objects by analogy, for example with the service of fire safety and other services security at these facilities.
Sources of information.
1. Sobolev G.A - resp. editor of «Seismic hazard». M, publishing house KRUK, 2000, p.66-96
2. Vasiliev S.V., Solodilov LN., VALERY Korobov Way of assessing the change in the stress state of the geological environment. Patent of the Russian Federation №2009124808 from 30.06.2009
3. Nicolis, G., Prigogine N. Self-organization in nonequilibrium systems. M: Mir, 1979, 512 S.
4. Prigogine N. From being to becoming. M: Nauka, 1985, 280 C.
5. Prigogine N. The end of certainty. Time, chaos and new laws of nature. M: 2000, 207 S.
6. A. N. Kolmogorov. Logical basis for information theory and probability theory. Problems of information transmission, 5.3, p.3-7, 1969.
7. Vartanian G.S., E.A. Popov, V.O. «Method for evaluating the suitability of hydrogeological and geophysical object for observation for the study of the geodynamic processes». Patent of Russian Federation №13033957 from 23.04.1984,
8. Voitov GI, E.A. Popov Geochemical forecast earthquakes. Magazine «Nature», 1989, №12. P.60-64.
1. Way of forecasting the earthquakes, based on determination of two of the three main parameters of earthquakes t is time, x,y - the coordinates of focal, M - magnitude, wherein the territory of polygon measuring, for example in the urban agglomeration or important economic object, perform monitoring network of seismological equipment of at least 4, it is preferable 10-14, three-component Registrar of seismic vibrations placed each other at a given spacing within measuring the polygon, and simultaneously equipment to monitor changes in level of water in one hydrogeological borehole, and the level of water in the hydrogeological borehole should react on the lunar-solar tides, and seismic records from a seismic source - distant earthquakes at distances of more than 2 degrees) establish the M - magnitude of future earthquakes, and by the reaction of the aquifer in the hydrogeological borehole at the impact of the lunar-solar tides set the time window of the mid-term forecast, the beginning of a short-term forecast and determine t 0 - time the occurrence of earthquakes.
2. Way of forecasting the earthquakes according to claim 1, characterized in that the M - magnitude of future earthquakes determine known way to change the integral characteristics of stressed state of the geological environment under the territory of the measuring polygon records seismological equipment and calibration of the scale established experimentally by results of monitoring of the seismic equipment, and the start time of the time window medium-term prediction of earthquakes determine the time t 1 - early terminate the reaction of the aquifer to the influence of the moon-solar tide, what is judged by the absence of the changes of water level in the hydrogeological borehole, and the start time, short-term prediction of earthquakes t 2 set on the basis of the resume time of reaction of the aquifer on the impact of the lunisolar tide on the water levels of the hydrogeological borehole, what is judged by changes in the level of water in the hydrogeological borehole, and the time of occurrence of earthquakes t 0 with respect to t 1 define the dependence of t 0 ={[(t 2-t 1 )+1]+(1+/-1)}, where time t 0 , t 1 and t 2 define in the day.