Method for estimating state of multi-parametric object (variants), computer equipment device and data carrier for realization of method

FIELD: controlling technologies and engineering of relevant equipment, possible use for estimating status of complicated multi-parametric objects and systems of various purposes.

SUBSTANCE: estimation method includes preliminary generation of object parameters composition, onto information carrier a set of measured object parameters is recorded during certain object functioning time in form of indicative coefficients, threshold values are determined, mutual interconnection of indicative coefficients and they are recorded onto information carrier, after that synthetic coefficients are calculated, as which projections of indicative coefficients onto axes of ellipsoids of dissipation of values of source indicative coefficients are utilized, object status is estimated on basis of selected portion of synthetic coefficients.

EFFECT: improved efficiency of estimation process, increased speed of operation.

 

The group of inventions relates to the field of computer engineering and can be used for standardized assessment of complex multivariate objects and systems for various purposes.

There is a method of determining the operability of the electronic object by several parameters (characteristics, indicators) using computer equipment [Mozgalevsky AV, Gaskarov A.I. Technical diagnostics. - M.: Higher school, 1975, str-160 and 35-46]. The method includes the selection of the measured characteristics by means of a program control circuit switching, conversion characteristics in the digital data forming the reference characteristics, the comparison of each characteristic with a reference characteristic in the arithmetic unit, the formation using a classifier (decoder) signal, which indicates the classification of each characteristic to a specific zone (or outside in the field of tolerance) by level of health facility, the indication and registration of the data.

Knows and implements the specified method of the device, including arithmetic and software blocks as part of the computer equipment, the processing unit of the reference characteristics, circuit switching, the classifier (the decoder), the display units and registration [see above source Brain is ewski AV, Gaskarov A.I. Technical diagnostics. - M.: Higher school, 1975, str-160].

The disadvantage of these known methods and devices is their narrow specialization, due to the focus on the assessment of the temporal characteristics of electronic equipment, as well as the absence of the interference characteristics. This limits the scope of use and the effectiveness of the method and device.

There is also known a method of evaluating the efficiency of large, i.e., multivariable systems [RF patent №2210112], which includes the automated evaluation procedure in real time using hardware in the form of a workstation chief engineer and server data media (data media, media, records, storage devices), which recorded at least one software tool (program) database, including a database of expert knowledge. In this way perform the selection of the measured system parameters, measured values of these parameters, convert parameter values to corresponding digital data, and record the digital data in an appropriate storage medium (storage device). Pre-recorded on the appropriate media data representation of a particular system in the form of jer is rhii its structural elements and individual indicators of efficiency, set in correspondence to each element of the structure, as well as the values of weight coefficients measured parameters and data obtained during survey of experts of this field of knowledge to which the evaluated system. Immediately prior to the effectiveness evaluation exercise (using workstation senior engineer) engineering inputs on the choice of evaluation strategy. Then using a terminal server and software - program effectiveness evaluation - analyze existing data, receiving a score on a consolidated performance indicator representing convolution of individual performance indicators, corresponding to the results of the analysis of the measured parameters. The evaluation result display and documented accordingly on the video monitor and the printer.

Known to be used in the implementation of this method means computing [Visayas. RF patent №2210112], which includes servers, and computer-readable storage media, and on one of the media data recorded by the software - program evaluation of the effectiveness of the implementing method.

Known also used when implementing this method, machine-readable data carrier for computational tools [RF patent №2210112], on which the software tool is prog is Amma effectiveness evaluation.

These method and device patent 2210112 allow to determine the effectiveness of large systems using the dimensionless estimates, providing a mapping between a large systems for various purposes.

The disadvantage of this method according to the patent of Russian Federation №2210112 is a need in the prior receipt and write to storage media expert information about the evaluated system, specific information on the relevant field of knowledge, as well as data on the structure of the system. This limits the efficiency of the method and speed of transition from one evaluation system to assess other system. The need for manual selection of assessment strategies using the station's chief engineer increases the time of implementation of the method (reduces performance). The absence of selection (reduction) of the measured and estimated parameters leads to an increase in the volume of calculations and reduced performance (speed) of the method, and also reduce the effectiveness of the assessment of a large system due to the interaction of many correlated between the parameters.

The disadvantages of the known computer hardware and data carrier by the RF patent №2210112 is the lack of recorded on the data medium, the program evaluation of the effectiveness of the operation of selection (reduction) measured and activae the s parameters, that leads to poor performance (speed) is implemented using the computing method, and also reduce the effectiveness of the assessment system.

The closest to the invention is a method of assessment multivariable object implemented using hardware, including the processor and the data storage devices (hard, floppy disk, random access memory) has been recorded on the data carrier at least one software agent (the calculation module and databases), intended to implement the method in the above-mentioned computing means [the Development of an information system diagnostics economic and energy security. Part 2. The structure of the basic blocks of information systems and their testing, Kuklin A., mysen A.L., Kalina A.V., Kiselev S. Kaliev and other Preprint. Ekaterinburg: Ural branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 1999, p.11-16].

Method of assessment multivariable object of the prototype is carried out in the computing means using software (programs) and a processor for executing the means of computing the following sequence of operations using the previously obtained manually or by using preliminary calculations source danniele multivariable object in the method prototype is the current set of indicators, comprehensively characterizing socio-economic situation of the regions of the Ural economic region in 1997-1998. The purpose of the evaluation is to determine the level of social, economic and environmental security of the region.

In the method prototype for the values of all available current source (primary) parameters parameter object, recorded on the media data in the database, make the determination (calculation) of the values of the indicators named in (natural) units according to certain formulas [see Visayas. Development of information system diagnostics..., p.15-16], and writes the obtained value current indicators on media data.

Indicative figures are indicators of the parameter object, which is an indicator of its condition, that is suitable for the assessment of multi-parameter object. To assess multivariate objects are tens and hundreds of indicators.

The operation of the prototype method for calculating values indicative of indicators is not required if all of the primary indicators of the object are suitable for use in assessing the condition of multiparameter object and in fact are indicative on what simple or if a certain part of the primary indicators is recognized as sufficient for assessing multivariate object by a set of indicators. Indicative figures, their current (to be evaluated) values and the base values and statistical data values for the previous period are written to the data carrier in the form of baseline program data [Visayas. Development of information system diagnostics..., p.12-13, table-1.6]. In the method prototype benchmarks are divided into blocks of indicators, reflecting the multivariate structure of the object. The choice of indicators is, as a rule, the expert way manually without the use of computer equipment, is done once with the possibility of correction.

Then also manually by an expert in the method prototype is defined normalized threshold indicators, which are also written to the data carrier in the form of files (databases) [Visayas. Development of information system diagnostics..., p.14, table]. Define normalized (normalized) threshold for each block of indicators and for multivariate object as a whole, are written to the data carrier.

The above described operation of the prototype method is performed for each estimated parameter object once, and the results of these operations are repeatedly used as the source data in each of the th evaluation of multiparameter object at different points in time, in accordance with the change in time of the current values of the indicators of a functioning multi-parameter object.

The rest below is described the operation of the prototype method is performed using a processor and software using the original data recorded in the original program data on the data carrier.

For the time for which the assessment, determine a normalized value for each of the indicators by the corresponding transformation of the existing values in named units using is also available in the original data base values. Save the obtained normalized values of indicators on media data.

Base value indicators as input for the implementation of the method known from the statistical data of the operation parameter object for the previous period and/or are technically sound normal values indicative of the performance of the evaluated object (the technical system) and recorded in the source data.

Then in the method-prototype determine the value of assessing the crisis situation (degree status multivariable object) for each benchmark index against which eljnosti, why use appropriate well-known decision rules (mathematical functions, formulas) and the previously obtained available in the source data on the corresponding data carrier normalized threshold value indicative of the parameter. To do this, compare read from the data medium normalized indicative value of each metric is read from the data medium normalized threshold value, receiving a rating value of each benchmark index, and record the results of the comparison to the data carrier.

Then in the method-prototype determine the value of each unit indicators by calculation using the obtained values of the estimated indicators for each block in the relevant final rules (formulas) [Visayas. Development of information system diagnostics..., page 16, second paragraph from the bottom], and record the results of calculations on the data carrier.

The aggregate values of all blocks of indicators is a set of values for the intermediate or synthetic indicators is directly assess the status of the multi-parameter object as a whole.

The importance of evaluating multivariate object is determined on the basis of the obtained values Sint the political figures in the relevant final rules (formulas) and record the results of the evaluation of multiparameter object to the data carrier. The number of synthetic indicators in the prototype is equal to the number of blocks parameter object (usually 20-30 or more), which is less than the number of indicators (typically 50-100 or more).

The results obtained by evaluating multivariate object output in the desired form on the monitor or the printer in the form of, for example, graphs or tables or introduced into the system of state management of multi-parameter object in the form of corresponding control signals for the correction of the estimated object.

The disadvantage of the prototype method is that the assessment of multivariate object is the totality of the available indicators of the object (tens, hundreds of indicators), which are correlated among themselves indicative indicators, which leads to lower efficiency assessment multivariable object. In addition, assessment of the state of the object is treatable. First assessment for each benchmark indicator. Then assess each block of indicators, these estimates represent a set of synthetic indicators. Finally, the obtained values of synthetic indicators assesses the condition of multiparameter object as a whole. This leads to increased time spent on conducting the RA is the free period for assessing multivariate object, reducing the performance of the method increases or performance requirements of the computing device and increases the cost of the required equipment. In the absence of the practical possibility of using computing devices required for this estimate multivariable high-performance is limited to the scope of use of the method, that is considered the prototype method is not applicable for objects with a fairly rapidly changing parameters, in particular for objects and systems in the transition regime, for example in pre-emergency condition. In addition, the formation of synthetic indicators in the form of blocks of indicators reflecting the characteristics (structure) estimated multivariate object, determines the dependence of the composition of synthetic indicators from the specific characteristics of the evaluated object, which causes additional costs of time during the transition from the evaluation of one-parameter object to the assessment of multivariable other object types, differing in their structure. This limits the efficiency of application of the method, the speed of transition from one evaluation parameter object to the assessment of other object types.

The closest to the invention is used p and implementation of the prototype method means computer engineering (computer) [Visayas. Development of information system diagnostics..., P6-11, especially page 8, line 8-9 below], of course including a processor and at least one data medium (local or network hard drive, random access memory)on which the software tool (program) - calculation module and a database for the above-described method of the prototype.

The disadvantage of this is used to implement the method of the prototype hardware prototype is that recorded on machine-readable data carrier means of the prototype program provides assessment multivariable object across the necessary range of existing indicators of the object, which are correlated among themselves indicative indicators, which leads to lower efficiency assessment multivariable object. In addition, as shown above, the assessment of the state of the object is treatable: first, the assessment of each indicator indicative, then the score of each block of indicators and obtaining values of the synthetic aggregate indicators, only then assesses the condition of multiparameter object as a whole. This leads to increased time spent on the calculations for assessment of the ke parameter object reducing the performance of the method increases or performance requirements of the computing device and increases the cost of the required equipment. In the absence of the practical possibility of using computer equipment required for specific estimate multivariate high performance is limited to the scope of use of the method implemented by a computing tool prototype. In addition, the formation of synthetic indicators in the form of blocks of indicators reflecting the characteristics (structure) estimated multivariate object, determines the dependence of the composition of synthetic indicators from the specific characteristics of the evaluated object, which causes additional costs of time during the transition from the evaluation of one-parameter object to the assessment of other object types, differing in their structure. This limits the efficiency of application of the method, the speed of transition from one evaluation parameter object to the assessment of other object types.

The known data carrier (machine-readable) [RF patent №2195026]designed for recording and reading information with a relative movement of the recording medium and the transducer, including optical media, certain physical is a mini-regions (nodes, the elements of the structure which, in this case, pitam points along the track, given the values of a physical parameter, namely, that each pit contains N bar optical inhomogeneities, where N≥1, and when N>1 bar heterogeneity within each pit are parallel and periodic and form an angle of θ relative to the electric field vector of the electromagnetic wave readout radiation, and the angle θ is the basic source of information and is different for different pits. When using this data carrier is the angle θ read by an external device such as a disk drive hardware. The values of the specified parameter to a certain number, at least part of the pit can be written in the form of machine code text software to implement a method.

Known disc-shaped storage medium (computer-readable storage medium) [RF patent №2201623], also designed for recording and reading information with a relative movement of the recording medium and the transducer having a substrate and an information layer, which contains optically readable marks elementary (nodes, elements, the physical area of the structure) with almost od is orodno density, moreover, the mentioned information layer has a first part containing the labels that are to be read with the first reading speed, and the second part containing the labels that are to be read with the second reading speed, which is higher than the first reading speed, characterized in that the second part of the information layer is located at a greater distance from the center of the disc-shaped information carrier, the first part of the information layer.

Examples of machine-readable data carriers with the use of the relative movement of the recording medium and the transducer are also hard and floppy disks, means for computing machinery [Visayas. Personal computer from the inside, Norton etc., M., 1995, str-133 figure 5.1, 5.2], performed with magnetic recording, including the head read/write (transducer)located above the surface of the magnetic layer is driven in rotation of the magnetic disk. In the magnetic layer has a series of point positions (physical areas, elements of the magnetic layer). Each of the said regions of the magnetic layer is a bit of information and can be installed (using the Converter in one of two magnetic States, which is the equivalent of zero and one, i.e. a binary code in which the data carrier write the correspondingly required information for example, the database or program. The capacity of modern hard drive provides storage for all the necessary programs and data. Power supply hard drive is only required for the read/write data and programs, for storing recorded on the disc information of the power supply is not required, they are non-volatile. However, the data carrier with the reciprocal movement of the recording medium and the transducer (in particular, sensor) have a relatively short time of access to recorded information that can not organize effective direct appeal of the processor to the storage media. Such data carriers are used as permanent storage devices (ROM).

In addition to the ROM in the computing facilities have the use of electronic storage media to be used as RAM - random access memory (or RAM from the Random Access Memory is a random - access memory), performed on the chip [Hardware IBM PC. Pocket encyclopedia, Mguc, St. Petersburg, 1996, p.22-25]. RAM has a certain number of memory cells - physical fields (elements, nodes, just areas) chips; each of these areas can be given one of two values of a physical parameter, such as the presence or absence of charge capacity, forming this is blast RAM [http://www.sibsutis.ru/˜ mavr/MP/DRAM.htm]. These physical condition of each area are the equivalent of zero and one binary code, in which the RAM is written to the required information.

A common disadvantage of the above-mentioned four types of data carriers (both ROM and RAM), which is machine-readable and have certain areas (elements, nodes), which can be attributed to some known values of the physical parameter is the lack of records in the set of values of the physical parameters of these regions these data carriers of any program that does not allow you to use the data carriers in such a "pure" form for assessment of multivariable object using computer equipment.

The closest to the invention is used in the implementation of the prototype method the data carrier (local or network hard disk of the computer, i.e. the computer-readable storage medium)on which the software tool - calculation module and a database containing data required for the implementation of the above method-prototype [Visayas. Development of information system diagnostics..., P6-11].

The disadvantage of the data carrier prototype, used to implement the prototype method is what is written on the data carrier programs the assessment of multi-parameter object provides an assessment of multivariable object across the necessary range of existing indicators of the object, in which are correlated among themselves indicative indicators, which leads to lower efficiency assessment multivariable object. In addition, assessment of the state of the object is treatable: first, the assessment of each indicator indicative, then the score of each block of indicators and obtaining values of the synthetic aggregate indicators, the synthetic indicators assesses the condition of multiparameter object as a whole. This leads to increased time spent on the calculations for the evaluation of multi-parameter object, which reduces the performance of the method increases or performance requirements of the computing device and increases the cost of the required equipment. In the absence of the practical possibility of using computer equipment required for specific estimate multivariate high performance is limited to the scope of use of the method, the program which is recorded on the prototype of a data carrier. In addition, the formation of synthetic indicators in the form of blocks of indicators reflecting the characteristics (structure) estimated multivariate object, determines the dependence of the composition of synthetic CSP is the result from the specific characteristics of the evaluated object, which causes additional costs of time during the transition from the evaluation of one-parameter object to the assessment of other object types, differing in their structure. This limits the efficiency of application of the method, the speed of transition from one evaluation parameter object to the assessment of other object types and composition (structure).

The purpose of the proposed group of inventions consisting of the first and second variants of the method and used for their implementation of computer hardware and storage media, as the purpose of each of the inventions is a more effective assessment of multivariable object, improving performance, extending the field of use of the method and efficiency of its application to objects of different types.

To achieve this goal, the invention proposed a first variant of the method of assessment multivariable object implemented using hardware, including the processor and at least one media data recorded thereon at least one software tool that controls the operation of the computer equipment in the process, which is read from the data medium to the values of the indicators determine the values of the synthetic indices and C is spisivaut them to the data carrier; after deciding on the appropriate rules determine the value of the evaluation parameter object using the obtained values of synthetic indicators, and baseline data - thresholds synthetic indicators and thresholds multivariable object, the resulting value of the evaluation record to the data carrier, characterized in that the determination of the values of synthetic indicators is carried out using the method of principal component by converting space indicators in the principal component space, and determines that each principal component is a synthetic indicator, and the value of the dimension of the space of principal components is equal to the number of synthetic indicators.

In addition, the first variant of the method of assessment multivariable object differs in that when determining the values of the synthetic indices using the method of principal component space transformation indicators in the principal component space are as long as the value of the dimension of the space of principal components is not equal to the number, in the range of three to five, rather than four.

To achieve the above objectives of the invention a second variant of the method of assessment of the status parameter object implemented using hardware, including the processor and at least one media data recorded thereon at least one software tool that controls the operation of the computer equipment in the process, which is read from the media data source data to determine thresholds of synthetic indicators and record them on the data carrier; thresholds synthetic indicators determine the values of the threshold parameter object and writes them to the data carrier; then the values of the indicators determine the values of the synthetic indicators and record them on the data carrier; and then deciding on the appropriate rules determine the value of multiparametric evaluation object using the obtained values of synthetic indicators, thresholds synthetic indicators and thresholds multivariable object, the resulting value of the evaluation record to the data carrier, characterized in that the determination of the values of synthetic indicators is carried out using the method of principal component by converting space indicators in the principal component space, and determines that each principal component is sinteticheskim indicator and the value of the dimension of the space of principal components is equal to the number of synthetic indicators.

In addition, a second variant of the method of assessment multivariable object differs in that when determining the values of the synthetic indices using the method of principal component space transformation indicators in the principal component space are as long as the value of the dimension of the space of principal components is not equal to the number, in the range of three to five, rather than four.

To achieve the above objectives of the invention the computing means for implementing the method of assessment multivariable object that includes a processor and at least one data carrier, characterized by the fact that the totality of the physical characteristics of certain areas at least one media data contains information about the program, designed to implement the proposed method according to the first or second option.

To achieve the above purpose of the invention, a data carrier designed for implementing the method of assessment multivariable object using computer equipment, characterized by the fact that in the aggregate physical characteristics identifying the different areas of the media data includes information about the program, designed to implement the proposed method according to the first or second option.

Each of the proposed technical objects - variants of the method of assessment multivariable object is new, is compared with the prototype and other analogues of two distinctive features, which are as follows. First, the determination of the values of synthetic indicators is carried out using the method of principal component by converting space indicators in the principal component space. Secondly, establish that each principal component is a synthetic indicator, and the value of the dimension of the space of principal components is equal to the number of synthetic indicators.

Each of the variants of the proposed method is characterized by a second distinguishing feature consists in the fact that when determining the values of the synthetic indices using the method of principal component space transformation indicators in the principal component space are as long as the value of the dimension of the space of principal components is not equal to the number, in the range of three to five, rather than four.

The novelty of the two proposed variants of technical objects (devices) - cf is DSTV computing machinery (including media data and media data is that in both cases, in the aggregate, the physical characteristics of the part of certain areas of the data carrier contains information about the part program that is designed for the implementation of the above distinguishing features of the proposed method according to the first or second option, while the physical characteristics of the prototype and model of the considered devices do not carry the information necessary for the implementation of these distinctive features.

This novelty of the proposed variants of the method and devices for their implementation leads to the emergence of a new technical result for each of the above-mentioned technical objects. A new technical result is to increase the efficiency evaluation of multiparameter object, performance, expanding the field of use of the method and efficiency of its application to multivariate objects of different types.

The efficiency evaluation of multiparameter object due to the fact that during the transition method of principal components of the space of the original indicators to space synthetic indicators provide compensation vzaimokreditovanie indicators, which reduces the estimate error caused by correlation between an indicative show of the residents of the estimated multivariate object.

Improving the performance of the method caused by the reduction in the time calculations for obtaining synthetic indices by the method of principal components, by performing calculations in a single step and the elimination of the above mnogoetapnoe of the prototype method. In addition, reducing the number of synthetic indicators obtained by the method of principal components (usually from 3 to 6 indicators and less), compared with the number of synthetic indicators, due to the number of blocks, as a rule, complex multi-parameter objects (20 or more indicators)provides the reduction of the time of the last operation of the method of evaluating multivariate object.

Expanding the use of the method is provided for reducing the time of the calculations, enabling consistent application of the method to the estimation of multivariate objects more quickly time-varying parameters, in particular to the estimation of multivariate objects that are in the pre-emergency situation, when a transient.

To increase the efficiency of applying the proposed method to the multivariate properties of different types due to the lack of necessity of forming a synthetic indicators in the form of blocks of indicators, reflecting the structure of the estimated volume of the KTA, because in this way synthetic indicators are formed of indicators by calculation using the method of principal components, independent of the structure of multiparameter object.

The result is technical in nature, as it is not only in getting through the proposed options way more high quality information about the state of multivariable object, but also in expanding the field of use, the improved responsiveness of the application, enhancing performance with the implementation of the method in the technical device (computing means), and is achieved not only through the application of mathematical method, program for electronic computer or the underlying algorithm, but also due to the use of technical equipment computer equipment and storage media. In addition, one of the proposed invention relates to machine-readable storage medium (media), including replacement intended for direct participation in the work of the technical means running recorded on the media program, providing the specified result [sub-paragraph (1.1) of paragraph 3.2.4.3 Rules of drafting, filing and examination of applications for patent for the invention is e, approved by the order of Rospatent from 06.06.2003, No. 82], the other the proposed invention (computing means) includes a machine-readable data carrier, and the third and fourth of the proposed invention (range method) are implemented using computer equipment, including machine-readable data carrier. Each of the proposed methods is also a way to control computing means for assessing the status of the multi-parameter object.

A new technical result from the use of the above-mentioned second distinctive characteristic in each of the proposed variant of the proposed method and devices for its implementation is that the performance of the method by reducing the number of synthetic indicators.

A means of computing (PC) for the implementation of the proposed method of assessment multivariable object includes a processor and at least one data medium (computer-readable), on which the software tool (program)that realizes the method. The computer also contains the controller and other appropriate United the necessary elements (monitor, keyboard, mouse, input-output and other). Usually the tool calc is tion technique contains two machine-readable data carrier - random access memory (RAM) and permanent memory (ROM) [Visayas. Personal computer from the inside, Norton etc., M., 1995, p.19-20, figure 1.1].

The ROM is, in particular, hard disk magnetic recording [Visayas. Personal computer from the inside, str-133, figures 5.1, 5.2], includes the head read/write which is located above the surface is driven in rotation of the magnetic disk with a magnetic layer in which there is a sequence point positions (areas, elements of the magnetic layer). Each of the said regions of the magnetic layer is a bit of information and can be installed (with the help of the specified heads) in one of two magnetic States, which is the equivalent of zero and one, i.e. a binary code in which the storage medium is written to the required information, such as a database or program. The current capacity of the data carrier in the form of hard drive provides storage for all the necessary programs and data. A data carrier (ROM) in the form of a floppy disk is a located in the corresponding case (envelope) floppy disk on the surface of which is coated with a magnetic layer having, as a hard disk, a set of fields that are installed in one of two magnetic States to record the required information is AI. For writing or reading information specified floppy disk placed in the disk drive having a head read/write and rotation of the disk.

ROM require power only to support the operations of the read/write head, for storing recorded information power supply is not required, the ROMs are non-volatile. However, a relatively large access time recorded information from the data carrier with the reciprocal movement of the recording medium and the transducer is not possible to arrange a direct appeal of the processor such media data.

Used in computing means RAM is an electronic storage medium, executed on the chip [Hardware IBM PC. Pocket encyclopedia, Mguc, St. Petersburg, 1996, p.22-25]. RAM has a set of memory cells - physical areas, each of which can be attributed to one of two values of a physical parameter, such as the presence or absence of charge capacity, forming the area of RAM. These physical condition of each area are the equivalent of zero and one binary code, in which the RAM is written to the required information (part of the program, input and output data). RAM provides fast access to information corresponding to the processor speed.

A great time is the access to information, stored in ROM, as well as the limited capacity of the RAM and the dependence of its memory from the availability of power secures traditional need for simultaneous use of RAM and ROM in the creation of modern computer technology. Although the first computers had a non-volatile RAM on a ferrite rings, for example a module of RAM 4096 28-bit numbers, weight 380 kg, designed for submarines [http://compmus 9.valuehost.ru/histussr/azov.htm].

However, already known to modern electronic media data on chip flash memory (flash drives), providing a non-volatile memory with a capacity of up to tens of gigabytes with quick access, for example, type FFD-350-Ultra company M-Systems [Brief product catalog 7.0, M, ProSoft, 2001-2003, str-137; or http://www.proson.ru/files/msystems.pdfl. Known specialized computer equipment, particularly used in Cisco 827-4V, Cisco Systems, in which the processor chip, chip RAM (DRAM capacity up to 32 MB) and non-volatile ROM in the form of a flash memory chip up to 20 MB hosted on the same motherboard [http://cisco.udm.ru/adv/827-4v.htm]. Fujitsu releases a chip non-volatile flash memory type FCRAM intended for use as a RAM, 8 MB [http://edevice.fujitsu.com/fj/ DATASHEET/ef-lvmb27_111_411_1_1.html]. The non-volatile RAM already is Osano and used.

It is also known description in the patent application on the invention of the Russian Federation No. 99126477 design computer memory, combines the properties of the operational and long-term memory. Known also used a chip that includes a processor and non-volatile memory, namely the microcontroller Intel 8051 with built-in memory 4 KB [http://elanina.narod.ru/lanina/index.files/student/mcs51/Struct.html].

Thus, currently, the technology is on track to create powerful computing facilities in the chip including the processor and the only data carrier (UNM), non-volatile, performing the functions of RAM and ROM. When performing processor and a data carrier END in a single chip such means of computer technology and media are inextricably constructive unity.

For the implementation of the proposed method can be used tool of the computer, the computer including a control unit, a processor and at least one data medium (RAM and ROM, or just the END), the set of physical States of a certain part of fields (elements, nodes) which carries information about the program, carrying out the proposed method. The set of operations (algorithm) of the proposed method are given in the claims and described in more detail below as examples of the OS is enforced variants of the method. When implementing these examples of the method used personal computer IBM PC Pentium 2 RAM 64 MB, Windows 98 operating system, a program and a database stored on the data carrier in the form of a hard disk 300 MB. The program takes the data medium 7 MB, databases up to 4 MB.

The proposed method of assessment multivariable object can be implemented also by a device comprising at appropriate points (nodes, blocks) of the estimated object sensors of the original data (the physical parameters of the object, acting in the form of indicators), the sensors are electrically connected to the conversion unit of the data in a form convenient for computer data entry and initial data on a storage medium of the computer. Output the specified block is connected with the corresponding input of the computer, including a control unit, a processor and a storage medium on which is recorded a software tool that implements the method. Examples of such devices are shown in the above-mentioned sources [RF patent №2210112; Mozgalevsky AV, Gaskarov A.I. Technical diagnostics. - M.: Higher school, 1975, str-160].

Below are described two variants of the method of assessment multivariable object. Each of the proposed methods is also a method of controlling calculate inim tool for assessing the status of the multi-parameter object.

The data medium (hard disk) written software (program) for implementing one or another variant of the method, including the source data (source data) for implementing the method. As software tools in the following embodiments of the method used a set of programs, including Microsoft Excel and developed with participation of the authors of the invention the program "Integrated diagnostic system energy and scientific-technical security areas" [FIPS, registration number 2003612603 28.11.2003,] with appropriate databases of source data (source data). The method can be implemented, and other software.

In the source information always comes with a set of baseline parameter object in the natural, named units, or calculated from these baseline indicators the set of indicators in named units. In the particular case of these together can be the same, i.e. all source parameters are indicative suitable for assessing the state of the object. The decision on the suitability of all baseline for assessing multivariate object and form a set of indicators in the General case is a creative task, addressed by the appraiser manually or by means of calculations on the selected appraiser mathematical formulas [example of corresponding mathematical expressions are given in the above source "Development of information system diagnostics...", page 16, third row from the top]. For ease of handling in the process of implementation of the method the current values of indicators, those indicators normalize, that is, the values of indicators expressed in named units, is converted into a dimensionless, normalized relative value indicators. When using normalized indicators used and their normalized values of thresholds. When the unnormalized values of the indicators threshold values are not normalized. In principle, a possible implementation of the method and without the use of normalized indicators and the normalized threshold values. In the following description of embodiments of the method will mean normalized benchmarks, and calling them as in the claims, the "benchmark indices".

The estimated parameter object in the below described embodiments implement the proposed method of assessment multivariable object is, in the example, technological complex of metallurgical production or energy system, including power generation and power transmission and energy-consuming enterprises or a set of indicators that comprehensively characterizing socio-economic situation of the region of the Russian Federation.

Below estimates obtained by applying the proposed method for assessment of energy security of the Urals Federal district thirty indicative indicators (n=30), the values of which are known for the five preceding the assessment time periods (N=150) [Comprehensive approach to assessment of energy security, territorial entities of the Russian Federation, second edition, Tatarkin, A.I., Kuklin A., mysen A.L., and others, Preprint, Ekaterinburg, Institute of Economics, Ural branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2002, p.17-33].

The source data for implementing the method (a set of current indicators estimated multivariable object and the set of N values of each of these indicators over time functioning multivariable object before the date of the assessment) is obtained by measuring parameters of an object using the appropriate sensors of physical parameters that reflect the functioning of the estimated megaprimer the ical object and/or the results of the statistical observations of the object.

In the following first embodiment of the method corresponding to the first independent claim of the invention is recorded on a data medium as a source of information:

- a set of indicators χijestimated multivariable object that includes the current (to be evaluated) values of each indicator and the sum of N values of each of these indicators over time functioning multivariable object until its evaluation;

- thresholds χIRthese indicators;

- calculated by the method of principal component threshold ZCPsynthetic indicators, when a predetermined value of ρtarising from the required accuracy assessment and determining the number t of synthetic indicators (see below);

- thresholdPfor multivariate entire object.

Turn on your computer and run the software that controls needed to implement the proposed method, the operations of the computer, the processor for performing the following describes the computational and logical operations, and appeals to the media data (permanent and/or RAM of the computer) to read the necessary background information and to record the information.

First, what about the original data will determine the values of the synthetic indicators using principal component method [Aivazian S.A., Anyukov I.S., Meshalkin L.D. Applied statistics. Fundamentals of modeling and processing of data. Reference edition. M.: Finance and statistics. 1983. str-353]used this space conversion indicators in the principal component space, in which each main component is a synthetic indicator, and the value of the dimension of the space of principal components is equal to the number of synthetic indicators.

The method of principal components is that the original factor space of correlated among themselves indicatorswhere n is the number of indicators, transform into the principal component space,

where t is the number of principal components, it is the same as the number of defined synthetic indicators multivariable object. The transformation produced by the formula

where Z and X is a set of values respectively of synthetic indicators and indicators;

CT- transposed matrix of the matrix C consisting of the eigenvectors of the correlation matrix indicators χijwhere;

n is the number of indicators;

N is the sample size or number with the I in the original data previously recorded values of each benchmark index (indicative values of each indicator for a certain number of times of operation of the multi-parameter object until assessment of his condition).

Such a transformation leads to a rotation of the coordinate axes, in which direction the new coordinates coincides with the direction of the principal axes of the ellipsoid scattering values of the original indicators. However, new variables (synthetic indicators) are uncorrelated, which reduces the estimate error caused by the correlation between the indicators estimated multivariable object.

Transformation by the method of principal coordinates is as follows.

By being read from the media data source data (values χijindicators) using the computer processor calculates the value of the mathematical expectation for each benchmark index:

The obtained values ofwrite to the data carrier.

Each of the following operations method (both versions) is performed in the processor with the appropriate references to media data.

Then determine the variance of each mathematical expectation:

Then calculate the normalized value indicative of the index:

Then calculate the correlation is atrica indicative parameters where i,i and g - pairs of correlated indicators.

Calculations carried out according to the formula:

Next, determine the eigenvalues λicorrelation matrix For the equation:

where I is the identity matrix;

λ - private number.

From the relation (6) determine the values of the eigenvalues λicorrelation matrix, each of which corresponds to an eigenvector Withimatrix K.

Values of eigenvectors Withiyou will need then to determine the principal components (synthetic indicators).

Equation (6) can be represented in the form of its determinant:

where kijthe coefficients of the matrix K.

To calculate the values λithe determinant (7) are in algebraic form of the equation of degree n:

Algebraic equation of the nth degree (7) decide on λ (determining n values λi) iterative method of Horner [Andre Ango, "Mathematics for electrical and radio engineers), Nauka, 1964, str-678].

After determining eigenvalues λiand their ranking (λii+1) determine the eigenvectors sub> imatrix K from (6), is represented as:

where kijthe coefficients of the matrix K;

with1,..., cn- proprietary vectori.

Substituting in equation (9) previously retrieved value λicalculate the values of the eigenvectors Withi.

Then define a new dimension of the transformed space is the space of principal components (synthetic indicators)on the basis of the ratios:

where ρt- specified value, which together with λidefines the value of the dimension t of the space of principal components;

trK is the trace of the matrix K, and trK=n.

Value ρtaccepts values in the range from zero to one. Dependence ρtfrom the t is of such a character that with increasing t the value of ρtquickly tends to unity. Value ρtspecifies the precision (error) assessment multivariable object (estimate error decreases with increasing ρt). When ρt=0,9-0,95 (the value of t is in the range from 3 to 5) estimate error is within a correspondingly from 10% to 5%. It is acceptable for the evaluation of most multivariate object the century When ρt>0.95 error will be less than 5%. When ρt<0.9 accuracy is over 10%. Note that with increasing t (number of synthetic indicators taken into account when assessing the state of the object) at the same time increases the computation time estimate values multivariable object during the last operation method, which is described below. Thus, these two criteria (accuracy and time calculations), the most acceptable is the range of values ρt=0,9-0,95 and accordingly, the range of values t=3-5. Mostly acceptable, the optimal value of ρtfor most cases, evaluation is ρt=0,93 (the value of t equal to 4), while the maximum error of the estimate is 7%.

To solve equation (10) take the set in the source data required value ρtfor example 0,96, and solve equation (10) by substitution of values of i(1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7), until the value of ρtwill not be equal to 0.96. When t is equal to 7, i.e. to estimate multivariable object is used 7 synthetic indicators. The precision of the estimate is 3%.

Then determine the values of the synthetic indicators by the formula:

where k takes values from 1 to t.

The last is perezia of this method is the determination of the value of the evaluation parameter object using the obtained by the formula (11) values of synthetic indicators and baseline data thresholds synthetic indicators and thresholds multivariable object. This operation is as follows, using the following logical and arithmetic operations.

For each synthetic indicator and multi-parameter object as a whole set, for example, three classes of States separated by threshold values: normal, pre-crisis state and the critical state. If necessary, each of the classes pre-crisis and crisis can be laid out in three stages. In this case, the pre-crisis state has stages: initial stage, developing stage, critical stage, threatened transition crisis in the area, and crisis includes unstable stage, threatening stage, emergency stage. In the future, for the sake of simplicity, is not taken into account splitting classes of States at the stage.

First determine the class of each of the synthetic indicator. For inclusion of a synthetic indicator to one class or another state determines the ratio between the value of Zkthis k-th indicator and threshold values Zkp precisand Zk p kriz. Depending on this ratio, the assessment of the synthetic indicator takes one of three values: Zk standards - normal, Zkprecis- pre-condition and Zkkriz- crisis state or in a General form Zk estimates.

Then determine the value of the current state of multi-parameter object in General by the formula, for example:

To obtain an estimate of the (establishment of the state class) multivariable object as a whole determine the ratio between the received value of the object and its threshold values Inpprecisand Inpkriz. The estimation of multivariate object accepts one of three values:standards- normal, Inprecis- pre-condition andkriz-crisis or genericestimates.

The resulting value of the evaluation parameter object write to the data carrier. This is a result of the implementation of the first variant of the proposed method of assessment multivariable object.

The application of the proposed method for assessment of energy security of the Ural Federal district has reduced the total time of calculation in comparison with the method of the prototype 2.5 times.

Improving the performance of the proposed method in comparison with the method of the prototype is due with the treatment time calculations when determining synthetic indices by the method of principal components as a result of calculations in one step, the elimination of mnogoetapnoe of the prototype method. This gain increases with the number of indicators of the object. In addition, reducing the number of synthetic indicators obtained by the method of principal components (usually no more than 3-6 synthetic indicators), compared with the number of synthetic indicators, due to the number of blocks of complex multivariate objects (20 or more synthetic indicators)provides the reduction of the time of the last operation of the method of evaluating multivariate object.

Reduce the time of calculations enables sequential automatic application of the method to the estimation of multivariate objects more quickly (sharply) time-varying parameters, in particular to the estimation of multivariate objects that are in the pre-emergency situation, in the transition mode. This expands the scope of use of the method compared with the method of the prototype.

No dependence of the composition of the synthetic indicators from the structure of the estimated parameter object provides a more efficient application of proposed method to multivariable objects of different types and composition.

As the synthetic indicators in the proposed method become nicorelief nymi, this reduces in comparison with the prototype of the estimate error caused by the correlation between the indicators estimated multivariable object.

In the following second embodiment of the method corresponding to another independent claim of the invention, the data carrier contains as a source the following information:

- a set of indicators χitestimated multivariable object that includes the current (to be evaluated) values of each indicator and the sum of N values of each of these indicators over time functioning multivariable object until its evaluation;

- thresholds χIRthese indicators.

As in the first embodiment, the method for assessing multivariate facility is equipped with three classes of States separated by threshold values: normal, pre-crisis state and the critical state, that is, for each benchmark index in the source data set pre-crisis and crisis threshold value.

Thus, the original data of the second variant of the method there are no thresholds synthetic indicators and thresholds for multivariate object is large.

Therefore, in the second embodiment, the method first source data to determine thresholds of synthetic indicators and burn them onto a data carrier, and the thresholds of synthetic indicators determine the values of the threshold parameter object and also burn them onto a data carrier.

Threshold values of ZCPsynthetic indicators, when a predetermined number t of these indicators defined set ρt- the dimension of the space of synthetic indicators, calculated above, by the method of principal components using the formulas (2-5, 8-11). In this case, all the calculations are relatively threshold χIRthat is not a current χivalues each indicative of a metric. So, to determine by the formula (2) mathematical expectationfor each threshold value indicative of a metric as initial data we take the value of χIRthreshold indicative figure. That is, in the formula (2-11) all variables contain a subscriptP(for example,, KIRthat λIRetc), meaning that they belong to the determination of threshold values of synthetic indicators. Note that for each of the indicators is the original data set two threshold values - pre-crisis (χi pprecis) and crisis (χip. kriz), so that for each synthetic indicators determine two corresponding threshold value. That is, all the calculations by formulas (2-5, 8-11) lead to two thresholds. For example, according to the formula (5) determine the values of Kig p precisand Kigpkriz.

When solving equation (10) take the set in the source data required value ρtfor example 0,89, and solve equation (10) substitution of the values of t until the value ρtwill not be equal to 0.89. When t=2, i.e. for the evaluation of multi-parameter object used two synthetic indicator, the precision of the estimate is 12%.

Threshold synthetic indicators is determined by the formula (11)written in the form:

Thus get the desired values of ZCPthresholds of synthetic indicators, namely, Zkp precisand Zkp. krizwhere takes two values (t=2), i.e. determine the threshold values for the two synthetic indicators.

Then determine the threshold value Inpfor multivariate object as a whole, for example, by the method of mean-square:

After you define the threshold values of synthetic indicators and thresholds multivariable object as a whole perform on the source data χijthe determination of the values of synthetic indicators by using the above-described method of principal components. Space transformation indicators in the principal component space are as long as the value ρtwill not be equal to 0.89. The value of the dimension t of the space of principal components is equal to the number of two, as in the previously produced the calculation of the thresholds.

The calculation is carried out directly by the formulas (2-5, 8-11), in the same way as described above for the first variant implementation of the method.

Then determine the value of the evaluation parameter object according to the second variant of the method using the obtained by the formula (11) values of synthetic indicators calculated by the formula (13) thresholds synthetic indicators and obtained by the formulas (14, 15) thresholds multivariable object. This operation is carried out similarly to the above the last operation of the first variant of the method.

Evaluate each of the synthetic indicator. For inclusion of a synthetic indicator to one class or another state determines are appropriate to osenia between the value of Z kthis k-th indicator and threshold values Zkp precisand Zkp. kriz. Depending on this ratio assessment of each synthetic indicator takes one of three values: Zk norms- normal, Zk precis- pre-condition and Zk kriz- crisis state or in a General form Zk estimates.

Then determine the value In the current state of multi-parameter object in General by the formula (12).

To establish a class of multivariable state of the object as a whole determine the ratio between the received value of the object and its threshold values Inp precisand Inp. kriz. The estimation of multivariate object accepts one of three values:standards- normal, Inprecis- pre-condition andkriz- crisis or genericestimates.

The resulting value of the evaluation parameter object according to the second variant implementation of the method is also recorded on the data carrier. This is a result of the implementation of the second variant of the proposed method of assessment multivariable object.

The aforementioned advantages of the first variant implementation of the proposed method are entirely the advantages and the WTO the wow version of the method.

The second variant of the method used in the first assessment multivariable object, when in the original data there are no thresholds indicators and facility in General. At the following time estimates the state of the object when specified thresholds are assessing in the first embodiment of the method.

Method of assessment multivariable object that includes the measurement of parameters of an object using a measuring reading information from measuring devices and record it on the data carrier, converting the received information to a form convenient for the current assessment, and write the converted data to the data carrier, the analysis of the transformed information on program evaluation, prerecorded on the media data, and documenting the results of the analysis, wherein the pre-procedure evaluation form part of the settings object, to the data carrier write a set of object parameters for a certain time of operation of the facility in the form of indicators, determine the threshold value, the interrelation of the various indicators that characterize the object, and burn them onto a data carrier, followed by the computation of synthetic indicators, the quality of the ve using projection vectors indicators on the axis of the ellipsoids scattering values of the original indicators, moreover, the state of the object is judged on a selected part of the synthetic indicators, and each operation is performed in the processor with the appropriate references to media data.



 

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