The method of analysis and forecasting of the development of the dynamic system and its individual elements

 

The invention relates to computer technology and can be used in the processing of information contained in data banks. The technical result is to increase the reliability of decision making in systems with fuzzy relations. The method is applied to organized data modeling complex dynamic system, the procedure of automatic identification, allowing the synthesis of the accumulated store of information with the newly entered data, the inference procedure laws changes to system objects and their attributes by induction on the basis of previously recorded conditions, procedures, diagnostics and forecast of development of system elements by analogy with the known sequences of the facts, leading to some standard States of the elements and procedures of diagnostics and forecast of development of system elements by analogy with the development of the same or similar elements, on which the information accumulated in the data Bank. 10 C.p. f-crystals, 32 tab., 4 Il.

The invention relates to computing and can be used in the processing contained in the computer data banks of information, and when raznye methods of information processing by means of computer technology, active development which has put a modern programming languages used for developing process control technology [5]. On the market of database management systems there are also object-oriented systems (e.g., DBMS Jasmine Computer Associates), object technology gets active dissemination and development in the field of artificial intelligence systems, allowing a certain way to organize knowledge representation system (G2 company Gensym Corp.) ([2], S. 70).

Power systems artificial intelligence is primarily determined by the volume of the knowledge base, and the second execution speed logical conclusions ([2], S. 13). Therefore, modern expert systems evolve in the direction of narrow specialization, and databases such systems are used to store the source and intermediate data is solved in the current task. In this regard, artificial intelligence systems, as a rule, do not use in the process of formulating its findings and long-term archived data. In addition, almost all of them are axiomatic and construct logical conclusions on the basis of some set of initial axioms, accepted as true statements.

The most the system and its individual elements (Patent RF №2098864), consisting of manually entering information into the database, the relational database management and forecasting perspective the state of the object according to the preset rules.

A disadvantage of the known technical solution is the low reliability of decision making in the case study system with fuzzy constraints and narrow functional orientation of the system.

In contrast to the methods of analysis of systems and phenomena of the surrounding world with the help of expert systems, with a narrow focus, by necessity, the use of specialized knowledge, the present invention enables diagnosis and to predict the development of the real complex dynamic systems using artificial intelligence systems based on the facts. This system in General is not axiomatic and provides the ability to use as a basis for making predictions and recommendations to the user computer data Bank designed for long-term storage of information about facts and events that occur in a dynamic system, combined with knowledge about the subject area (a database containing information common to neenie forecast the development of the real system based on the maximum consideration of the facts, relevant to the system.

Furthermore, the method enables the analysis of information in trudnovospituemyh systems, in which there are irregular processes, and elements which operate according to the laws, is not defined explicitly.

It is assumed that the development of a dynamic complex system and its individual elements is monitored by a finite number of registrars operating asynchronously with respect to each other from the point of view of the choice moments registration system States, as well as the range of registered parameters. Moreover, in addition to the observed dynamical system, the registers control the status of other dynamic systems, which in the General case, the observer is not interested in. The results of registration status of all controlled dynamical systems are transmitted in a single information flow in free-text form and contain, in addition to the parameter values (reflecting both quantitative and qualitative characteristics), search the signs of these parameters (in one form or another), as well as some comments.

For analysis, analysis, identification condition and forecast of the development of the observed dynamical system on the basis of the registration flow Dan is the motor of the General information flow of the data, related to the observed dynamic complex system, and rules for the allocation of selected information signs describing individual components of the system and their status. These rules ensure that the choice of the input flow of information only those data that relate to observable dynamic system, and the simultaneous structuring the selected data in the form of bringing them to the information structures of a single format that allows subsequently be applied to these structures software procedures for their automated analysis. The technical feasibility of these solutions provided by the technology of object-oriented databases (ODB). Among the well-known software that provides the opportunity, currently on the market information systems presents the database management system Jasmine, UniGen RAD, CronosPlus. Their distinguishing feature is the ability to map information structure corresponding attached software procedure (method - in terms of object-oriented technology), providing processing of the relevant data, including received in the input stream. Thus, in [ia new object (synonym: structure - approx. ed.) or to create an implementation class using the data stored in the external file. Since in our case the external file stores the text data for their processing can be used in the methods of linguistic analysis that is widely used, for example, when solving problems of automatic translation of texts from one language to another. Principles of automatic recognition of text above, in particular, in [1], S. 99-123.

To ensure basicbuttonui view information about a dynamic system in the Bank data to determine the parameter sets of the elements of the dynamic system that is used to map information about the system components and their condition, stored in a databank with information about the elements of dynamical systems and conditions contained in the input stream, so that the set of values of any of the sets of parameters uniquely identifies a particular element of the system and its condition; determine the rules for selecting the desired set of identifying parameters depending on the data in the input stream; compare the identified parameter sets data from the input stream with the same type of data, stored in the data Bank; slye data Bank data, optionally perform addition or substitution information stored in a computer data Bank of relevant information from the input stream. The technical feasibility of the specified characteristic of the invention is confirmed by the practical implementation of the identification and merging of similar data, in particular, DBMS CronosPlus ([4], S. 29-34, 58-60).

The procedures of comparative analysis of real information with a pre-known set of possible States of a dynamical system describing the dynamics of the processes that may participate in a dynamic system, in-memory computing setup form the first auxiliary database as one of the subsystems of the knowledge base, and in the first auxiliary database to store descriptions of the structures representing possible values of the status parameters of the elements of the system, information about the possible manifestations of the values of the state parameters of the system elements, the information about the intermediate values of the state parameters of the system elements, leading to possible values of the state parameters of the system elements, sequences and time of their appearance.

In addition, it is possible to form in the data store information, define the functional, logical, heuristic or algorithmic dependences describing the set of possible laws of development of the dynamic system and/or its separate elements.

To ensure the procedures of the findings of the laws of development of a dynamic system in-memory computing installation also form a third auxiliary database as a subsystem knowledge base, and the third auxiliary database stores information describing the methods of deducing laws of development of the dynamic system and/or its separate elements on the actual data, showing their known fixed state.

To enable an objective assessment of the formed projections or results of the analysis of data form the mapping table describing valid quantitative and qualitative differences of the values mapped to parameters within which to compare the elements of the system or their States are identical.

Consistently read the information presented in arbitrary symbolic form, from which, on the basis of predefined rules produce information related to dynamic complex system and forming phonemically complex systems, from the input stream select values of the parameters characterizing these States of the dynamic elements of a complex system; for each selected condition information form similar description of the state in the form of a formalized structure that includes a list describing the state of the model parameters with their own unique values, as well as information about the hierarchical and associative relationships, the state of a given element of a dynamic system with States of other elements; information counterparts of the elements of the system with a mapping between States of the system are entered in the computer database, corresponding to the dynamics of changes of States of the system.

For performing the above characteristics are used in the technological capabilities of object-oriented databases. To this end, based on the required tasks of monitoring, analysing and forecasting the development of a dynamic system, create its information-logical model based on the instrumental capabilities of a DBMS and using well-known methods of data organization, excluding custom arbitrariness in the development of the model (object-oriented analysis/object the model can be used for receptions, described in [9] and [10]). For example, when working with DBMS CronosPlus to create a model, you need to use the "Design data Bank" (see[4], S. 45-73). In the case of DBMS Jasmine for the same purpose this component DBMS called Jasmine Studio ([3], S. 4-1 - 4-4). In both cases, as an integral part of the formalized design patterns user attached is developed software procedure (method), which aims to search in another text arrived at the entrance DBMS, information related to the data type that corresponds to a formalized structure, initiated the attached procedures, the formation of in-memory computing installation information template that describes the new state of the corresponding element of the dynamic system and the entry found in the text of the parameter values in the appropriate fields of this template. The basis of the algorithm such attached procedures to ensure the finding in the original text of the required data and entering them into the appropriate fields (parameters) of the information template as the prototype of the generated patterns, methods are used:

search in the original textitem;

- mapping of identifiers information structures stored in the data Bank, with fragments of the input text stream;

- linguistic information analysis (see [8]); and, possibly, other methods of pattern recognition.

For realizability way eliminate duplication of information in the data Bank after you boot your computer the next portion of information from the input stream based on the matching rules are loaded and stored in the data Bank information using the above-described sets of identifying parameters. The Bank modify data in such a way as to complement the necessary data, but at the same time to eliminate redundancy and ensure a unique match each state of any element of a real system one and only one unit of information storage in the database.

When forming forecasts of the elements in the real system, we model information data Bank structures formed according to the results of the registration state of this system, from the data Bank alternately selects elements whose States are changed according to the results of the next session of the input information from the input stream. Di is stored in the information structures of a data Bank, associated with the element of the system of hierarchical relationships (attributes), organize the selected values in chronological order in the form of a par value of option - check"; use the second and third auxiliary database to select the database that contains or displays such a law (rule) development entities of the world, that he with a degree of accuracy determined by the mapping table corresponds chronologically ordered sets of values of all the selected parameters; based on the selected or generated from the second or third auxiliary database generate parameter values, describing the status of the selected elements of the main data Bank for the near future, the results display on the display device information computing installation.

Indicate the element of the system; for this item, the system determines a list of the current values of the parameters describing the status of this item; determine the elements stored in the first auxiliary database, such that the values of their parameters describing the state of the elements at certain points in their development, meet testy, describing in chronological order of its state in the previous time periods, with values of elements selected from the first auxiliary database; provided that the specified element to one of the elements in the first auxiliary database on the minimum list of parameters, sequence and spacing of their manifestation, display device information display information about the values, sequences and intervals manifestations of those parameters of elements of the first auxiliary database that describe the sequence and dynamics of the transition elements of the first auxiliary database, similar to the corresponding element of the system, after matching periods of development.

Possible case in which you specify the element of the system. For the specified element of the system define a list of values of parameters that define the current state of the element (current settings); define similar items stored in the data Bank, such that the values of their parameters correspond to the current values of the specified element of the system, compare the parameter values of the specified element of the system, describing the time the spacecraft data or the same item, but in the earlier stages of its development; provided that the specified element to one of the items found on the minimum list of parameters, sequence and spacing of their display display device display information computing installation information about the values, sequences and intervals manifestations of the same options found items that describe the sequence and dynamics of the transition elements of a data Bank, compared with the specified element, after matching periods of development.

For the convenience of the user found in the Bank of data items similar to the selected item, rank by the number of relevant parameters and their consistency with the defined mapping table. In addition, a visual representation of forecast reliability is achieved by the fact that for each similar item shape parameter of the degree of coincidence, the value of which corresponds to the weight of the corresponding parameters specified and similar elements of the system to the total number of parameters of the specified element of the system, or for each similar item shape parameter of the degree solpadeine system to the total number of parameters of the same element of the system. Possible option in which for each similar item shape parameter of the degree of coincidence, the value of which corresponds to the weight of the corresponding parameters specified and similar elements of the system to the total number of parameters specified, and similar elements of the system.

When used for analysis and forecasting of complex dynamical system and its individual elements, the method is implemented as follows.

To assess the current condition and forecast of the development of elements of the studied dynamic system in-memory computing installation, creates a repository of information organized in such a way that it includes accumulated in the archive Fund of the registration materials of the States members of the target system, their individual attributes and parameters, as well as integrated with them knowledge of the laws of development of the surrounding world and elements of the studied system. Archival information is stored together with the actual data and are identified only chronological markers, positioned by the user with respect to the upper limit of the archive (i.e. the depth of the archive each time can be determined by the user depending on the tasks). Ka is issledovaniya (or aggregation) attributes, ordered in a hierarchical way and the locking state of the element at certain points in time. As the root object element and its attributes are described using aggregate unambiguous or multivalued parameters (properties), reflecting the quantitative and/or qualitative indicators of condition attributes and element in a generally fixed points in time. In General, the registration States of the elements and their attributes is performed asynchronously. The elements of the system at each moment in time are in development and interaction with each other, which is reflected in special groups (or classes) of objects that describe the relationship between elements of the system, both directly and through the attributes.

In computer memory must be formed in advance the knowledge base that is integrated with a database within a single repository of information through associative links. Knowledge base, which is part of the information store must contain the following:

abstract knowledge about the functional, algorithmic, logical, and other dependencies that reflect the laws of development of objects and phenomena of the surrounding world (organized in the form of the second auxiliary database);

- rules the m values of their parameters (organized in the form of the third auxiliary database);

declarative knowledge, reflecting the model of the state of the system elements, with the description of sequences of events that lead to their achievement, and the causal links between them, and indicating, where possible, the causes of the corresponding model state (first auxiliary database).

To automatically merge the same type of information before it is loaded into the information store as sets of parameters must be defined sets of identifiers of objects (elements of the system and their attributes), if the values match, the system makes a conclusion about the identity of objects, as well as the terms and conditions of the matching and merging of objects based on a given set of identifying parameters and their values.

For the above conditions necessary for the implementation of the method, stage system configuration define and load in long-term memory computing position:

rules (methods) automatic identification and synthesis of information about the system elements and their attributes (system objects), loaded into store information from the input stream, objects, existing in the repository at the time of loading. This is abori (keys), reliably and unambiguously identify the object among other objects of its class, and the types of manipulation values when merging objects (e.g., parameter values can be merged into a single value at their coincidence, when the difference of the values of the new parameter value can replace the old value, and so on);

rules that inductive conclusions of the laws of change of the object recorded at different points in time of their States;

- a set of standard functional, algorithmic, logical, and other dependencies that reflect the laws of development of objects and phenomena of the surrounding world;

declarative knowledge is organized in a sequence of interrelated objects knowledge base and the reflective model (standard) the state of elements of the system, describing sequences of events that lead to their achievement, and the causal links between them, and indicating, where possible, the causes of the corresponding model state, prospects of development of the elements and recommendations for management in order to achieve an optimal state;

- mapping table describing valid quantitative and qualitative R is s and situations with objects and situations archive Foundation.

In the analysis of the system or its separate elements in memory computing installation performs the following sequence of operations:

- input form in object form in the workspace or the intermediate file (which play the role of the input stream), these data are loaded in the computer database upon the occurrence of certain conditions or at the direction of users;

- at the stage of loading the new data, presented in the form of objects that act as information analogs of real elements in the complex system and their interrelationships, is fed to the input of the information store. The computational install activate procedures (methods) identification and synthesis of objects (mapping rule loaded and accumulated in the information store data). Role methods is that for each of the formed object from the input stream to find identical in structure and with the same set of identifiers defined conditions identify (on the basis of existing in the input set object parameters), the object store. In the absence of identical objects, the object from the input stream zagruzit merger information contained in the input object with the object in the repository of information on the conditions determined by the appropriate method of identification and synthesis of objects;

modified existing and new objects programmatically correspond with the labels on the time axis and are marked with the appropriate chronological markers, indicating the date of actualization of the object. If the object does not change its state, but was present in the input stream, it is still marked as updated;

after loading data in the information store automatically or upon user's request (depending on system settings) computational setting is activated mechanism conclusions, initiating an inductive analysis of data and issue forecasts. This identifies all of the system elements, attributes, or settings are changed after loading a next portion of data in the information store. For each updated item system inductive method are laws change its attributes all levels of hierarchy and control actions on other objects, as well as laws change element as a whole. For this purpose the following steps:

- activent and its relationships previously committed their States based on the newly received values using appropriate knowledge base, contains possible models of functioning of objects (i.e., information about the most common valid for different types of items, the development patterns of the elements and their attributes) and organized in the worlds of related knowledge: the worlds of algorithms, heuristics, mathematical and logical formulas, and so on - derive the laws, according to which the element performs control actions, and patterns of change in its attributes. If the object's attributes are managing impacts from other objects, there is also an inductive output dependencies describing these impacts;

- defining in this way the laws change the attributes of the lowest level of the hierarchy, in the procedure of conclusion similarly computing the installation initiated the process of modeling laws change the attributes of the next level of the hierarchy;

- withdrawing the laws of change of attributes continues ascending branch of the tree hierarchies of attributes that describe the interdependence of attributes bottom-up only for those attributes that were updated in the current session of the input object;

addiction, inductively inferred for each item and at the action on other elements of the system, and predictions of impacts on other elements. After issuing the user identified patterns and forecast of development of the next element, its attributes, and relationships is the subsequent processing of information related to the next element of the system, details of which are updated in the current session of the input information; and

- if the available amount of knowledge or data, it is impossible to make an inductive inference about the law of development of any object, it shall be notified users;

for elements of the system, the status and attributes which have changed in the last session load information (option - only for items that are controlled and observed by the user) and/or prognosis of the development which could not be done on the basis of inductive conclusions, and in all cases, the user (for example, to check the results of the analysis and the forecast made by inductive), active methods of diagnostics and forecasting by analogy, which involves:

- quantitative (within the acceptable range of variance) and qualitative agreement between the state of the considered system element at a fixed point in time with some teodelina, in the same sequence (or one of the valid chain sequences), if it is not specifically mentioned (we will call this the analogy of the signs and behaviours);

the coincidence was fixed, but not necessarily synchronous time system elements (within acceptable range) between the composition, structure and attribute values, functioning conditions and historical development (the analogy examples).

In the first case, as objects for comparison with the target element of a dynamic system are the elements of the first auxiliary database, and in the second case elements of the same class as the target element, information about previously recorded States are accumulated in the information store, or even the target element at the previous stages of its development.

Found identical objects in appropriate situations and environmental conditions are used to forecast the development of the studied elements. The basis for the forecast in the first case serves as an interconnected chain of subsequent events, describing the behaviour of a system component in the first auxiliary database from the model state, coinciding with sostojanija store information similar element, starting from the point in time at which its status and conditions coincide with the compared element (in both cases will identify the condition as a middle state comparison element).

Thus, the search algorithm is similar to the information in the memory of the computational setup is as follows.

1. For the analogy of the signs and types of behaviour:

- first auxiliary database is searched for all objects, providing a preliminary identification of what is happening in the studied processes item in its current state on the basis of the coincidence of this state with one of the States described in the first auxiliary database in circuit serial or parallel events (middle States);

- for each object of the first auxiliary database selected in the previous step as the initial diagnosis, analyzed the chronological sequence of States and events, which includes these features; maps to the historical development of the item to be compared with these conditions in order to identify matches in the nature and sequence actually took place the States of a system, accumulated in HRM taken into account, what is the target element of the system in addition to the States that fall in the range can have a state, it is not related and associated with other aspects of the item. The comparison results in a match sequences of typical States of the system elements described in the first auxiliary database with the real conditions of the studied element described in information store, to a terminal device of a computing installation chronologically displays the status of the item described in the first auxiliary database after a median state, which serves as the likely trends in the development of real-studied element of the system; the object from the first auxiliary database describing the median element selected information with recommendations for optimal management of the analyzed element of the system or user actions, aimed at obtaining additional data required for unambiguous diagnosis of the condition element.

- in case of insufficient data for an unambiguous diagnosis of the condition of the item system model behavior attempts to obtain this information from the user is developing other elements of the system, accumulated store of information (see below).

2. For similar examples of the development of other elements of the system:

- store information searched all elements of the state, input and output actions which are fixed points in time are identical or similar in the relevant qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the compared element at the moment of its development (end state item to be compared);

- analyzes the historical development of the comparing element and elements of comparison, selected from the archive Fund of the information store. It tracks the duration of the identical period of development. Since the registration of the values of objects is performed asynchronously, in order to enable comparative analysis of the attributes and parameters of the elements when the comparison is made of their synchronization by selecting existing or modeling predicted values of the objects with respect to a specific point in time based on the available data (for example, using the results of inductive conclusions obtained in step 4, if available, any other way). For each comparison element analysis of background runs until Dmitrov outside the range of acceptability) or full sample historical development of one of the compared elements. The computational setup is fixed periods similar development, the objects are ranked by decreasing the duration of these periods. This takes into account the fact that in the chain of States of the sample can be locked condition, missing in the chain of States of the analyzed object, and Vice versa. In the General case this may be due to the asynchronous reception of States of objects or disguise the individual elements of the system of their actions from observers;

- sequentially in accordance with the ranking list for each element in comparison to a terminal device of a computer given its development process, starting from the recorded median state, then there is a sequence of subsequent States and associated control actions, which had the element to other elements of the system and turned on him in order to shape behavior. The subsequent development of the comparison element, starting from the middle of the state, by analogy can be used to predict the development of the compared object and the impact on him;

- in the absence of identical objects found in the data Bank is isolates, and the forecast of development of the object by analogy is performed by the computer in accordance with these objects with the appropriate information about that user (the possibilities and conditions for exclusion from the list of compared parameters certain parameters are defined by the user);

- option to search the similar elements of the system for example is the comparison of the periods of development of all updated in the current boot session objects regardless of the limit States and sequences of States of all system elements accumulated in the information store. Essentially a search engine for similar items does not change, but the user gets an additional opportunity to assess the development of the property when the development trend of the analyzed object coincides with the example from the archive, but the archive for some reason (for example, because the observer was not taken into account the state of the example corresponding to the end state of the analyzed element.

Diagnostic and prognostic capabilities of the considered method is directly dependent on the amount accumulated in the information store of facts and declarative knowledge. If in granile user diagnostic message about the lack of examples for comparison.

In General, the possibility of realization of the invention is provided by a combination of the following signs.

1. Organization in a certain way data Bank, describing the experience of the past development of the studied system and its elements, as well as a knowledge base (in the form of first, second and third auxiliary database) that contains the standard model of the laws of development objects in the form of functional, logical dependencies, algorithms, deterministic sequence of events leading element of the system to a particular state, as well as procedures to ensure the inductive output of the laws of development of elements of a dynamic system and their attributes using the known values of the parameters measured at fixed time points.

2. The allocation of identifying parameters for each type of system elements and their attributes, the mapping of the identification rules loaded objects with objects accumulated in the information store.

3. Defining matching rules and the valid ranges of the parameters differ according to which the conclusion is made about the identity of objects and/or their state.

4. The task of the inference algorithm, providing the operations in the following sequence:

- provisions, merge the same data in the boot process, marking the updated object;

- alternate search updated elements of the system under investigation, diagnosis of their condition, forecasting trends to offer the user the possible schemes for managing objects in the form of the following sequence of operations for each element (full or for certain types of analysis in any combination):

- definition of the law of the functioning of the element based on the output by inductive rules change attributes that are organized by levels of types of attributes in a hierarchical tree view of the state attributes (taking into account their complexity), and fixed state relations and relations of the element with other elements of the system; forecast attributes and relationships of an element and the element itself as a whole on these laws;

comparison of the historical development of the system element with the objects of the knowledge base to diagnose the possible States of the studied dynamic system as a whole and its separate elements in sequences of signs and events, allowing to give a definite forecast of its development and recommendations for management element and the system is ment system, taking into account the values of all its attributes, relationships, as well as the environment in which we operate in this item; store search information elements, having in the process of its development is similar to condition (the median state of the items being compared); the study and comparison of the historical development of the analyzed element in the current state with the background of the development of the items being compared, measured from their mid States; issuance for each user found in the information store mid-state elements comparison of the processes of their development after the middle of the state. In order to synchronize information and enable comparisons of the values of the parameters and attributes of system elements at this stage are the laws of development parameters, attributes, and elements in General, derived in the process of inductive analysis in the previous step.

In Fig.1 shows a diagram identification and synthesis of objects stored in the information store, using the data from the input stream when coincidence of the identifiers of the objects. Selected path marked objects (element and its attributes), which are marked as updated. The highlighted numbers in the source element; and the element stormie parameters are defined or specified values.

In Fig.2 shows a diagram of the procedures of inductive inference to the objects used in the simulation of States of a dynamic system. Inductive inference is performed for updated items and is to determine the patterns of changes in attributes of elements provided at him control actions, as well as significant effects of the element to other elements of the system. Each recorded status attribute may be displayed on the chart it changes one or more points. In the latter case, this means that for some period of time the attribute had not changed its state (for example, "Attribute 3"). From the output of the inductive path dependencies can be forecasted development (selections functional dependencies).

In Fig.3 presents the effect of analogy on samples for assessment and prediction of the behavior of a system component. The list of possible States of the system elements is stored as an interrelated sequence of objects of the first auxiliary database and is described as leading to the desired state sequence of events (manifestations of some primenyaemyh in a scale model of time (relative scale with the reference point, beginning at the moment of appearance of the first event). These events are mapped to real events connected with the activity of the analyzed element of a dynamic system. In the case of their identity (the "~" sign in Fig.3), as well as the identity of the time intervals of their alternation (if critical) is to diagnose the state of a system component. In Fig.3 contours of equivalent States selected for the real object is immaterial that in the sequence of its States can be included events that are not related to the diagnosed condition. Shaded circles object first auxiliary database describing the analyzed state of the element of the system, considered as a forecast of its further development.

In Fig.4, illustrating the use of procedures similar to examples shows the state space of the example, which is one of the elements of the system that match the structure of the investigated element. The analyzed element is the same element - example, if he is in his development was the same condition as the example in the identical influences on him from the outside (arrows under the circles representing the state) and revealing the deposits). Due to the fact that the registration state of the system elements is performed asynchronously, not fixed all of the States as an example and analyze item. Uncommitted status at least one of the parties automatically exclude from the comparison of the corresponding state in the other hand (Fig.4 these States are marked more by a thin border of the circle). On the contrary, the uncommitted individual status attributes of a particular element (for descriptions of the individual parameters, input and output actions) do not exclude the possibility of the comparison States. As an example, may act as the analyzed element in the early stages of its development. As the forecast of development of the analyzed element is the sequence of States reached by the element for example after a median state.

In the claimed invention can be used to separate fragments of known methods relating to automated data processing of complex dynamic systems or their elements.

For example, well-known tools that enable identification of the loaded objects from the input stream with the information accumulated in the storage of informational objects in one of the standard, static sets of identifiers. The invention also provides for sets of identifiers to determine dynamically depending on the composition of the input data and their values.

The possibility of encapsulation types (classes) of elements of a system of procedures (methods) identification and synthesis of objects, however, and methods of analysis and forecast of development of interest is confirmed by the technological capabilities of object-oriented DBMS Jasmine, which provides the possibility of using different levels of data processing methods (in particular, in [3] described the organization of object-oriented databases with encapsulation in class methods, class-level and method-level class implementation).

Theoretical basics of using methods of theory of inductive conclusions and theory of analogies in expert systems is described in [1]. Almost the mechanism of inductive conclusions implemented in an expert system ECO ([2], S. 171).

The sample analysis system using the described method is considered for the case of a registration event of the same scale.

The studied system is used, for example, includes a credit institution using their services is Taani and relationships of the elements of the system is carried out by fixing the current market events and their chronological reference. Store information about events, legal and physical entities are formalized and for each element (event, natural or legal persons) represented by the classes (types of elements of a dynamic system) with parameters that represent the following structures are presented in table 1.

Description of the composition and structure of the information object “Person”, are presented in table 2.

Description of the composition and structure of the class “Organization”, presented in table 3.

At the design stage, the user develops procedures (methods), providing detection and automatic identification of objects in the input stream, their comparison with similar objects store information and synthesis of information by supplementing or replacing the values of the parameters of the object from the repository parameter values of the same object specified in the input stream. As an example of a method of identification consider the class "Person". We assume that each person is uniquely identified by at least one of the following sets of parameters:

- surname, name, patronymic, date and place of birth;

- surname, initials, place of work and position;

- surname, name, patronymic, address of residence;

- surname, first pass is to be presented in the following form:

A=(lastChi= nameIAnd nameChi= nameIAnd patronymicChi= surnameIAnd date of birthChi= birth dateIAnd place of birthChi= place of birthIOR (lastChi= nameIAnd the first letter of the nameChi= the first letter of the nameIAnd the first letter of middle nameChi= the first letter of the middle nameIAnd the name of one of the postsChi= positionIAnd the name of the organization employer for bracketed postsChi= the name of the organization employerIOR (lastChi= nameIAnd nameChi= nameIAnd patronymicChi= surnameIAnd the name of the place of residenceChi= name of the place of residenceIAnd the street nameChi= street nameIAnd the house numberChi= house numberI[[And the case numberChi= case numberVI] And apartment numberChi= apartment numberI]) OR (lastChi= nameIAnd passport numberChi= passport numberIAnd the series passportChi= series passportIAnd date of issueChi= date of issueIAnd organizastiyami parameters. IndexesChiandIbelong to the same identity parameters of the object respectively store information and input stream. The brackets fragments conditions, the lack of data for which no effect on the result of identification, but with the appropriate information they are used as part of identifying key.

The first operation performed on the objects in the system, is the synthesis of the same data. Suppose that in the information store has an object containing the next piece of data presented in table 4.

In the input stream of user-generated object, are given in table 5.

The application procedures for the identification of the resulting synthesized object containing the following data, presented in table 6.

The described example relates to the substantive parameters with a single value (single parameters or properties). However, any parameter can have multiple values (multi-valued). In this case, the new values are added to the existing. If the group of parameters are combined in the attribute represented by a separate class, and the element has a multivalued reference to this ATP is Lena referral allows you to find the attribute and its value in memory. State attributes are recorded at fixed points in time that can be used for analysis and forecast of the further development of the inductive conclusion.

For example, LLP "Sirius" at some points in time are known indicators of financial development, presented in the form of objects of class "balance sheet" related organization "Sirius", and are presented in table 7.

08 March 1999, when the data is loaded in the data storage attribute "balance sheet" has been updated once again, what is the basis for a program to analyze the trends of this attribute. The program selects all the objects, and on the basis of data contained in them creates a relational table 8.

Next, using the interpolation formula of Lagrange (or otherwise) of the parameters are approximated by the functions represented by polynomials of n-th degree. The argument is the time, measured in days. For the start date of reference will take 01.01.98 Then, an approximate function according to the amount of Bank loans of the company from time to time will be of the form:

Similarly can be approximated by a functional dependence for the arrears of pay and arrears. Recall that the interpolation dependency is not only in order to secure the immediate forecast change attributes of the components of the system, but also to synchronize the state of the various system elements in the forecast by analogy.

The procedure of analysis of the elements of the system by analogy to similar samples with analysis using similar examples. Moreover, we can say that the analysis of the samples easier analysis examples due to the fact that all model state of the sample a priori known and can be fully described as a chain of successive States or causal dependencies. In contrast, in the examples of the status register, as a rule, selectively, whereby there is no guarantee that all States of the system element (as analyzed, and with which comparison is made) were recorded by an observer; comparison and analysis are carried out only on those States with similar periods in the development of elements that pieces of identification periods similar development elements.

Due to the typical characteristics of mechanisms analysis using analogy to samples and examples consider the forecast system element by applying a procedure similar to examples of how a more complex use case similar to the procedures of qualitative analysis of the system.

Suppose we have a complex system that represents the starting complex space rockets, calculation of service, a set of normative-technical documentation, a set of launch vehicles intended for service at the launch site. At some point in time for one of the missiles installed at the launch site in preparation and implementation of start-up recorded the following sequence of States shown in table 9.

Information store there are historical data on maintenance and commissioning works on the launch pad in the form of a fixed sequence of the following events, presented in table 10.

The possibility of comparison of the States of the analyzed element and example through standardization and unification of state descriptions using elements of type "Event". The parameters of this class are correlated each event with the corresponding species group (VIIa, subjects and objects of the event; the purpose, motive, cause and conditions of its occurrence, the possible consequences (see above).

Analysis procedure the examples in the following sequence.

1. Identify the element (or elements) of the studied dynamic system, end state which describes the object in question class "Event", choose a unique search features (e.g., slot number). For the underlined element in the information store find all of its recorded status, order them in ascending date, thus forming the background to the development of the analyzed element.

2. As input to search for a similar item in the information store selected parameter values of the object class "Event" that describes the end state of the analyzed element, which contain the typical characteristics that enable their use as a search image. These signs can be attributed code or the name of the qualifier events, the number and types of subjects and objects in the event. These parameters form a minimal set that is used for identification. In addition the kit may be included goals, motives, Slaveikov way searches meet him objects of the class "Event".

The following example illustrates a query that finds events that are associated with purchases of shares of the company "Rostelecom" by any individuals:

FROM SB 76 FA AND 19 LT AND 20 RG FO 01 PB 'Buying or selling shares of the companies' LC RG 06 RV Rostelecom

3. Found events are interpreted as the median state of the system elements to be considered as possible examples. Next, the formed sequence of events that comprise the history of the development of possible examples. For this, we identified the elements of a dynamic system as possible examples. With this order of events - the median state selected item IDs events, speakers in them as subjects or objects. These identifiers are remembered. Sequentially for each sampled set of events involving the selected item. An example of a team implementing such a sample:

FROM SB 19 RG OR 20 RG RG 05 PB <item ID system> RG 05 PB <item ID system>

Selected events are ordered by ascending date.

4. For each ordered sequence of events describing the history of the development of the next element dynamic selection of events from the ordered chain of events, describing the history of the development of the analyzed element, starting from the end of the event towards the beginning of the time axis;

each selected event is mapped to a minimal set of identifying parameters with event sequences being compared, starting from the middle of the element towards the beginning of the time axis;

- formed table 11 mapping resembles the following.

Each state of the analyzed element in the alleged analogue in accordance with a minimal set of identifying parameters may be set in accordance with one or more States, or any state potential of the sample, which can be located at arbitrary points in the chain of events associated with potential example;

- formed chain of coincident events, taking into account the possible presence of unregistered events in the analyzed element, and a potential example. With this purpose, based on the previous table are formed table 12-24;

among the generated tables 25-30 selected only those that involve the greatest number of States in the chain of coincident events.

- next to select the most adequate chain takes into account the degree shooteth used the coefficient of relative dynamism D, which is defined as follows:

Tni=(tni-tni-1)/tni;Tai=(tai-tai-1)/tai;

di=Tni/Ta;

whereTnifor the estimated similar relative duration of the time interval between the i-th event and (i-1)-th event, measured in relation to the total duration of a sequence of matching conditions at the proposed analogue;

Taifor the analyzed element relative duration of the time interval between the i-th event and (S)-m event, measured in relation to the total duration of a sequence of matching States of the analyzed element with the alleged analogue;

tPCthe absolute duration of the time interval between the median state and the k-th event in the sequence of States likely similar (event number k ischikauia the duration of the time interval between the end state and the k-th event in the sequence of States of the analyzed element of a dynamic system (the event number k is calculated from the end condition in direction to the beginning of the time axis);

di is the rate of divergence of the length of the time interval between two adjacent States i and i-1 likely similar with respect to the corresponding States of the analyzed events;

D is the coefficient of relative dynamics of the changing States of the analyzed element with likely similar to the interval of the alleged similarity;

n - number of analyzed States.

For further analysis is chosen is the chain of events, which has a minimum coefficient of D. Suppose that this sequence corresponds to the table 31.

Discovered thus the sequence of events in a certain chronological framework is considered as a possible analogue of the historical development of the object.

5. After selecting this way similar chains of events to other elements of the system, which found the median state, coinciding with the end state of the analyzed element, these chains are compared between themselves and with the historical development of the analyzed object according to the algorithm outlined in paragraph 4. On the comparison of the corresponding elements of the system with associated fragments of historical development or excluded from further consideration, or RAS thus forming a set of analogues (examples) which will be given to the forecast of development of the studied element.

6. Issued chronologically ordered sequence of States of the selected examples, starting from the middle and to the end state (or until completion of a user-specified interval of the forecast), giving the user an idea of the possible variants of development of the studied element of a dynamic system.

For the above example as a forecast of the situation prepare the rocket for launch may serve the following well-known event (see tab.32).

7. As options in the analysis can be taken into account:

- conditions of the external environment in which we operate in the analyzed element and the likely counterparts. To do this in a minimal set of identifying parameters, allowing you to select comparable events included characteristics of the territory in which there is a development of events;

- missing in the studied chains of States alleged analogues of data (due to their simulation by the rules obtained by applying the inductive conclusions).

Additionally it should be noted that when implementing the method:

- implemented faithful reproduction of the laws of development of elements and Kostecki state and is generated forecast system development, its individual component elements, attribute values and element parameters in accordance with the history of their development.

The claimed invention is intended for:

diagnosis of conditions of complex dynamic systems, their elements and attributes elements, analysis of interactions between elements of the system;

- determine the laws under which they are changes of attribute values of elements of the system, on the basis of their States, recorded at different points in time, as well as the impacts on the attributes from the element to which the attribute is set in correspondence, and other elements of the system;

- determine the laws by which the element has a controlling influence on other elements, as well as the nature and degree of this influence from the element's attributes and impacts from other elements of the system;

- forecasting the development of the elements of the system state parameters known at some point of time or specified by the user (terminal States);

- forecasting of development of the system or its elements in accordance with the historical development by analogy with the sequence proyavlena is instead of the term "knowledge base" uses the term "first auxiliary database"), and/or on the basis of the results of observation of the development of similar elements having similar status and historical development in the past under similar environmental conditions;

- recommendations to the user about the appropriate follow-up management system elements depending on the current conditions in accordance with the experience of previous development (the sequence of previous States);

assessment of the reliability of the generated predictions and the validity of the recommendations according to the results of previous experience in the development of the system;

- identify the circumstances and reasons that led to the achievement system, its individual components and elements detected or user-defined conditions, the formation of causal dependencies for the occurred event;

- summarize the results of the observation of the behavior of the system elements, the formation on the basis of the results of the observations set of features of the model States and the sequence of their manifestations.

Bibliography

1. Ed. by H. Ueno, M. Ishizuka. The representation and use of knowledge. TRANS. Japanese I. A. Ivanova. - M.: Mir, 1989.

2. Popov, E. B., Fominykh, I. B., Pudding E. B., Chapot M. D. Static and Dean is 4. Instrumental database management system Cronos. - M.: ZAO "Kronos-inform".

5. K. Date. Introduction to database systems. Kiev - Moscow, "Dialectics", 1998.

6. Grady Booch “Object-oriented analysis and design with examples of applications in C++”, - M.: Binom, 1997.

7. J.Martin. Organization of databases in computing systems, - M.: Mir, 1980.

8. Edward Jordan, Karl Argila. Structural models in object-oriented analysis and design - M.: Lori, 1999.

9. Mencari Century, About the concept of simulation of social processes - in the book "the Circle of ideas: historical information science on the threshold of XXI century". Ed. by L. I. Borodkin, Y. P. Smirnova, I. F. yushina, Moscow - Cheboksary, 1999, S. 351-371.

10. Mencarow, C. simulation of social processes. The concept and practice of implementation of scientific - technical information Bulletin "New technology", No. 5, 6 for 1999, S. 2-8.

Claims

1. A method for diagnosing the status and predicting the development of dynamic complex systems, the values of the parameters at different points in time are recorded and documented by different registrars in the form of text reports of arbitrary format and transmitted to the observer in a single stream, together with reports on the results of the registration of the values of the other parameters of dynamic complex systems, characterized in that the beforehand set of selection rules from the General flow of the registration text data information related to ASCS is karisawa condition of individual elements of the system; from the whole list of parameters describing the system components and their status, highlight the parameter sets used for comparison of accumulated data about the elements of a dynamic system, with the input of information about the elements of a dynamic system, so that the set of values of any of the sets of parameters uniquely identifies the corresponding element of the system and its condition; determine the rules for selecting the desired set of identifying parameters depending on the data in the input stream; in-memory computing setup form the first auxiliary database in which to store the related descriptions of the structures, displaying the sequence of possible States of the system elements and the time of their appearance; sequentially reads are presented in arbitrary character information describing the results of the registration States of many complex dynamic systems, of which in accordance with specified rules, produce information, form information input relating to the observed dynamic complex system; on the basis of the rules defined selection of signs, har these state elements of dynamic complex systems; for each selected condition information form similar description of the state in the form of a formalized structure that includes a list describing the state of the model parameters with their own unique values, as well as information about the hierarchical and associative relationships, the state of a given element of a dynamic system with States of other elements; information analogs of state descriptions of the elements of the system showing the connections between them are entered into the database; compare the identified sets of structure parameters from the input stream with the same type of structures stored in the data Bank; in the case of coincidence of the values of the parameters of the structures of the input stream included in any of the selected sets of parameters, with the appropriate parameters similar structures of a data Bank on the instructions of the user perform the addition or replacement of the structures of a data Bank of relevant information from the input stream, thus providing a unique match each state of any element of a real system one and only one unit of information storage in the data Bank; Bank data indicate the element of the system of structures which describe polarwall auxiliary database and describes the state of the elements of the system at certain points in their development, such that the values of their parameters correspond to the values of the parameters of the last recorded status of the specified element of the system; compare the values of the parameters of the structures of the specified element of the system, describing in chronological order of its state in the previous time periods, with values of the parameters of the structures of the elements selected from the first auxiliary database; provided that the specified element to one of the elements in the first auxiliary database on the minimum list of parameters of the structures, sequences and intervals of their display display device display the information about the values, sequences and intervals manifestations of those parameters structures simulating the state of the elements of the first auxiliary database which describe the sequence and dynamics of the transition elements of the first auxiliary database, similar to the corresponding element of the system, after completion intervals matching conditions.

2. The method according to p. 1, characterized in that in-memory computing setup form the second auxiliary database, and a second auxiliary database store CBE many possible laws of development of the dynamic system and/or its separate elements.

3. The method according to any of the preceding paragraphs, characterized in that in-memory computing installation form a third auxiliary database corresponding to the system, and the third auxiliary database stores information describing the methods of deducing laws of development of the dynamic system and/or its separate elements on the actual data, showing their known fixed state.

4. The method according to any of the preceding paragraphs, characterized in that in-memory computing setup form the mapping table describing valid quantitative and qualitative differences of parameter values within which the matching elements of the system or their States are identical.

5. The method according to any of the preceding paragraphs, characterized in that indicate the element of the system, from the data Bank select structure describing the status of the element in the previous moments of development, which are arranged according to the chronological sequence of these structures is chosen parameter values, use the second and third auxiliary database to select the database that contains or displays the rule of the essence of the surrounding mesopotania, corresponds chronologically ordered values of all the selected parameters; based on the selected or generated from the second or third auxiliary database generate parameter values describing the status of the selected elements of the main data Bank for the near future, the results display on the display device information.

6. The method according to any of the preceding paragraphs, characterized in that indicate the element of the system of structures which describe the latest registered status, choose the list of values of the parameters in the data Bank find similar items that have patterns, simulating their condition, such that the values of the same parameters of these structures correspond to the values of the parameters of the last recorded status of the specified element of the system, compare the values of the parameters of the structures of the specified element of the system, describing in chronological order of its state in the previous time periods, with values of the same parameters of structures that describe the state of other elements from the data Bank or the same element, but in the earlier stages of its development; PV, the sequence and spacing of their display display device display the information about the values, sequences and intervals manifestations of those parameters structures, simulating the condition of the found elements that describe the sequence and dynamics of the transition elements of a data Bank, compared with the specified element, after matching periods of development.

7. The method according to p. 1, characterized in that found in the data Bank items similar to the selected item, rank by the number of relevant parameters and their consistency with the defined mapping table.

8. The method according to p. 1 or 6, characterized in that for a similar item shape parameter of the degree of coincidence, the value of which corresponds to the rank of a similar item.

9. The method according to p. 1 or 6, characterized in that for each similar item shape parameter of the degree of coincidence, the value of which corresponds to the ratio of the number of relevant parameters of this and similar elements of the system to the total number of parameters of the specified element.

10. The method according to any of the preceding paragraphs, characterized in that for each similar item is the corresponding parameters of this and similar elements of the system to the total number of parameters of the same element.

11. The method according to any of the preceding paragraphs, characterized in that for each similar item shape parameter of the degree of coincidence, the value of which corresponds to the ratio of the number of relevant parameters of this and similar elements of the system to the total number of parameters specified, and similar elements of the system.

 

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