The method of computer modeling of the strategic balance of offensive and defensive strategic weapons in the two countries

 

(57) Abstract:

The invention relates to computer technology and can be used for modeling the dynamics of the interaction of large-scale systems. The technical result is the expansion of the displayed information. The method is based on the formation of arrays of data, containing information about the characteristics of funds of arms of countries, using Cvetkovi scales of converting data into an image and then determines the effectiveness of the means used.

The invention relates to the field of computer modeling in dialog mode dynamics of the interaction of large-scale systems. composed of heterogeneous objects, and can be used as a tool in the negotiation process experts of Russia and the USA to develop motivated compromise on the issue of strategic stability offensive and defensive strategic weapons.

The claimed invention can be used as a new adaptive synthetic model of strategic stability of the XXI century, developed and agreed on the basis of the results of the negotiations, while the use of the offensive arms (start II) and missile defense (BMD) are represented as components of a single strategic framework, providing a balance of offensive and defensive weapons of Russia and the United States.

This model is intended to put into the framework of the contractual relationship levels ABOUT the U.S. and "asymmetric" response, blocking, thus, the promotion of a new round of the arms race.

It must ensure compliance with the national security interests of Russia and the United States and its NATO allies without prejudice to the interests of other countries interested in establishing strategic stability. This should be saved potential deterrence between the United States and Russia and simultaneously blocked aggressive and provocative actions "third countries", in relation to which the strategy of deterrence is ineffective.

Unlike the Orthodox strategy of mutual deterrence. based on the ABM Treaty of 1972 between the USSR and the USA, the new model should be more than adequate today's geopolitical environment and adaptive to the trends of its development. The model takes into account the following main changes that have occurred in the world since the signing of the ABM Treaty of 1972:

(a) proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and missile means of delivery among "third countries", in Otan Western Europe and Russia threats;

b) a significant weakening of the overall military-economic potential of Russia while maintaining a rough parity with the US to start;

C) the tendency of integration of Russia into the world community on the basis of common economic interests and human values;

g) the United States ' interest in creating a national missile defense system under the new contractual relations with Russia without unilateral denunciation of the ABM Treaty of 1972, which would have led to the destruction of all the existing structures of global strategic stability.

The balance of strategic offensive and defensive weapons of Russia and the United States if the U.S. NMD (national missile defense) can be achieved provided that the measures that exclude the possibility of obtaining U.S. unilateral advantages by drawing on the territory of Russia disarming a nuclear missile strike and the weakening of the Russian backlash. This condition may be performed by compensating the combat capabilities of NMD difference in the quota start considering overcome in favor of Russia, set out in the Treaty.

In more detail the concept of strategic stability in the twenty-first century is described in [1].

The model is the CLASS="ptx2">

For example, there is a method of determining the effectiveness of ballistic missile defense, implemented in the probabilistic model described in [2]. This method can be used to determine the technical characteristics required for the defense that meets the specific political and military objectives. The purpose of the defense is set in the form of some probability of no penetration warheads through defensive system. Specifications are determined by the probability of kill with one start interceptor and detection probabilities warheads, tracking and classification. The attack is characterized by the number of warheads and not identified decoys. Examines the modes of defensive fire and shooting with correction and displays the optimal allocation of interceptors on each target for the last case with the possibility of application variants of this model to determine the size of the national missile defense (BMD) and BMD at theater.

The General principle of this method and the present invention is the use to calculate the efficiency of the system ABOUT when reflecting missile strikes different density SS="ptx2">

The disadvantage of this method is the lack of opportunities specification when solving certain tasks, such as target setting carried out calculations, as well as the mechanism of interaction between users and computers in the process of developing complex solutions when creating a new strategy of stability based on the balance of start - ABOUT (Strategic Offensive Weapons - Missile defense) U.S. and Russian with simultaneous effective defense of U.S. territory against missile attacks from third countries, the possible adjustments of the ABM Treaty of 1972 and the difference in quotas on strategic offensive arms of Russia and the United States, offsetting the combat capabilities of the NMD (National Missile defense) when the reflection of retaliation.

The known method [3], representing the process of a virtual replay of the interaction operators tools and systems to accomplish combat tasks management of military installations on a qualitatively new level, which is the closest analogue of the claimed invention and based on the fact that the computer database is divided into sections for the formation of arrays of data containing information about Kolya who's computer then using Cvetkovi scale data conversion placing anti-missile systems for national missile defense in the image display color image data generated in the highlighted boxes on the display screen. The known method is intended to make motivated decisions in difficult conditions of warfare with modern weapons systems.

The disadvantage of this method, which is the closest analogue to the claimed invention, as applied to the field to which this invention is that it is impossible on the basis of this decision to simulate combat the missile defense system at the reflection of her missile strike.

Due to the large number of factors of a political, military, technological, economic and organizational characters agreements on the issue of global strategic stability without the use of computer models in interactive mode, it is impossible.

The aim of the invention is to eliminate the disadvantages inherent in the above solutions.

This objective is achieved in that world is, contains information about the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of funds of arms of countries, and entered these data into the computer database, then using Cvetkovi scale data conversion placing anti-missile systems for national missile defense in the image display color image data generated in the highlighted boxes on the display screen, in addition to the first array of data include information about the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of strategic offensive arms of the first country.

In addition, data of the second array containing data about the means of the system of national missile defense of the first country is divided into five groups containing respectively the 1st and geographical coordinates placement of missile systems for national missile defense of the first country and defending them to the areas of the first country 2nd - information about the items included in missile complexes, 3-I - parameters of the starting units, the 4th - the number and parameters of the missile defense and 5th in the number and parameters of the radar stations.

Then ask the first cocococococococo defense of the first country and defending their territories in the image, using the first Tsvetkova scale display in the first selected window on the display screen an image of a map of the territory of the first country, indicating it coordinates the placement of missile complexes and defending them to the areas of the first country.

In the second selected window displays color images of missile complexes of the first countries in the third selected window display tabular presentation of the parameters of the starting units, interceptor missiles and radar stations included in the second array.

Then on the computer screen combined image generated in the first, second and third Windows, receiving the first mnemonic representing the image of the system of national missile defense first, after which the third dataset includes information about the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of strategic offensive arms of the second and fourth selected window on the display screen displays an image of a map of the territory of another country placed on it by means of strategic offensive arms of another country.

Next, upon request of the operator of the first array Dogo arms of the first country participating in the first overpowering shock of strategic offensive arms of the first country on the territory of another country and on the basis of the selected data form the fourth array data and put it in the computer database.

Then in the fifth selected window on the display screen displays a tabular view of the data on quantitative characteristics of strategic offensive arms of the first countries involved in the first overpowering shock of strategic offensive arms of the first country on the territory of another country, and then specify the second Tsvetkova scale conversion of quantitative and qualitative characteristics of strategic offensive arms of the first country and the areas of the first country, which are subject to the actions of these funds, participating in the first overpowering shock of strategic offensive arms of the first country on the territory of another country, in the image. Using the second Tsvetkova scale, in the sixth selected window on the display screen displays color images of the areas of the second country, which are subject to the action of means sartorii another country.

Then on the computer screen combine images contained in the fourth, fifth and sixth boxes, receiving a second mnemonic of strategic offensive arms of the first countries involved in the first disarming strike on the territory of another country, and based on the analysis of the obtained images establish the facts of the destruction of strategic offensive arms of another country.

Later in the fifth array data include data on the quantitative and qualitative characteristics caused by the second country damage, compare the data from the third and fifth arrays of data and by comparing the results form the sixth array data on quantitative and qualitative characteristics of strategic offensive arms of another country, remaining after disarming the missile strike.

After that, at the request of the operator of the sixth data array to produce several sets of data about the tools of strategic offensive arms of another country, each of which corresponds to a different version of strategic offensive arms of another country participating in a retaliatory strike another country on the territory of the first spot to ask a third Tsvetkova scale conversion of quantitative and qualitative characteristics of variants of strategic offensive arms of another country, participating in a retaliatory strike another country on the territory of the first country and region of the country, which are subject to the actions of these funds in the image.

Using this third Tsvetkova scale display data about the cases of strategic offensive arms of another country participating in a retaliatory strike, the first mnemonic representing the image of the system of national missile defense first in the country.

Receive a third mnemonic combat engagement means of the system of national missile defense of the first country and all variants of strategic offensive arms of another country participating in a retaliatory strike.

The effectiveness of the system of national missile defense the first country in the reflection retaliation second country is determined by the criterion of the probability of penetration through it asked the number of warheads m among n participating in various embodiments, retaliation, defined by the formula

< / BR>
here n is the total number of warheads of another country participating in the strike,

m - set the number of warheads of the second country, penetrating the defense first is through missile defense first country

p(a) = p1(a/b)p(b)

where p1(a/b) is the conditional probability of the warhead one anti-missile if it is the correct detection and selection, as well as the reliable operation of the elements of the system of national missile defense,

p(b) is the resulting probability of correct execution of all transactions and events that affect the implementation of the interceptor to its target, while

p(b) = p(C)p(d)p(e)

where p(C) is the probability of target detection, tracking and delivery of the target.

p(d) is the probability of correct selection warheads on the background of decoys,

p(e) - probability of failure of the main equipment;

if p(a) = const for all warheads and missiles,

p(o) is the probability of hitting all m warheads will be equal to

p(o) = (p(a))m,

when the condition is met, namely, that one target is shooting at the same time r is erected,

pr(a/b)=1-(1-p1(a/b))r=1-Lr< / BR>
where L=1-p1(a/b)

L - index "permeability" national missile defense in the second country for each warhead.

The received data R(m) as the eighth of the array is recorded in the memory of the computer is proniknoveniya pmin(mminthrough a system of national missile defense in a retaliatory strike another country on the territory of the first nation.

Put them in the computer memory and pairwise compare data <m, p(m)> with predetermined threshold values <mpmin(mmin)>.

If is a pair of numbers <m*, p*(m*)> meet the condition:

m* mminand p*(m*) pmin(mmin)

decide that the national missile defense does not violate the existing strategic balance of strategic offensive arms of the two countries.

If the mentioned condition is not satised for any pair of numbers, in an iterative cycle increase by one the number of warheads n participating in a retaliatory strike another country, and determine the number of nminwhen running the specified condition, then determine k by the formula:

k=nmin- n,

where k is the estimate of the disturbance of the existing balance in the field of strategic offensive arms of the two countries in favor of the first countries due to the country's system of national missile defense.

Increase the number of strategic us the defensive weapons of the two countries.

Bring in the ninth array of data about the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of means of mass destruction weapons of third countries and rank descending data on the quantitative characteristics of means of mass destruction weapons to third countries. Then allocate the data to a third country higher grade, which is recorded in the database of the computer in the form of a tenth of the data array.

At the request of the operator of the tenth data array to produce several sets of data about the means of mass destruction weapons of the third country, each of which corresponds to a different option strike a third country through the territory of the first nation. The resulting data sets in the form of the eleventh array are entered in the computer database.

Then ask the fourth Tsvetkova scale conversion of quantitative and qualitative characteristics of variants of means of mass destruction weapons of the third country of the highest rank and area of the territory of the first countries, which are subject to the actions of these funds in the image.

Using the fourth Tsvetkova scale, display data of all variants of the impact of a third country with the highest rank on the territory of the first countries in the first mnemonic, the th mnemonic combat engagement means of the system of national missile defense of the first country and funds of weapons of mass destruction of a third country with the highest rank.

Then determine the effectiveness of the system of national missile defense the first country in the reflection of her various options missile attack a third country with the highest rank according to the criterion of the probability of hitting it all m participating in the strike warheads in accordance with the expression:

p(o) = (p(a))m< / BR>
provided that one target is shooting at the same time r is erected.

Obtained for each variant of the probabilities of the destruction as the twelfth array data are entered into the computer memory.

Next set the threshold of the effectiveness of the system of national missile defense the first country in the reflection of its missile attack a third country in the maximum value for the probability of hitting all m warheads pthen(0) a third country involved in the attack on the territory of the first country, and at the request of the user of the received values of the probability of hitting the twelfth array choose Rmin(0) and compare it with the said specified threshold value.

If the condition

pmin(0)pthen(0)

consider the system of national missile defense the first country settings data is effective when the reflection missile strike in third countries and at the same time not violating the strategic balance of offensive and defensive strategic weapons in the two countries by increasing the number of warheads the second country on the value of k compared to the first country.

Failure to meet these requirements in an iterative cycle increase data on the number of interceptors contained in the second data array, to the value at which this condition is true, and correct data on the number of interceptor missiles of the second array by increasing the number of interceptors on the calculated value.

Then, using the obtained values, determine the probability of penetration warheads p(m) for a counter attack another country on the territory of the first countries to determine the new value of k and increasing the number of strategic offensive arms of another country on k, and restore the balance of offensive and defensive strategic weapons in the two countries.

The principles of the claimed invention take into account the following factors.

Since the signing of the ABM Treaty, the world has undergone significant changes, as that is impossible.

In 1972, when the world military-political arena were two main players - the USSR and the USA, between them there was consensus recorded in the ABM Treaty, which has long been a powerful stabilizing factor, acting in the framework to the m are characteristic, on the one hand, a significant weakening of the economic and military power of Russia, and, as a consequence, the loss of its former global prestige and position, and on the other the emergence of many new players that have the capabilities to dramatically affect the fate of the world in the absence of their leaders adequate responsibility for such actions.

The experience of past years has shown that purely political means failed to contain the spread of missile and nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

For all the variety of conflicting and common interests of Russia, the USA and countries of Western Europe determinative in this game are the positions of the USA and Russia in regard to the ABM Treaty 72, and essentially to the concept of strategic stability in the twenty-first century.

US proclaim a new doctrine of ensuring strategic stability in the first place, its security is based on the existence of a MISSILE defense system that guarantees the survival of a multipolar (from the point of view of the presence of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery as BR) world with multiple foci of regional conflicts.

Russia sees in the U.S. position neiskrennego) U.S. attack. This will break set by the start-2 Treaty and the future of the start-3 Treaty strategic balance and will force Russia to respond in the direction of its alignment (the so-called "asymmetric response"). In addition, based on known rules to focus not on the intentions and capabilities, there is every reason to believe that infrastructure NMD will allow to increase its combat capabilities to the level, completely blocking our response.

In these circumstances, the United States (boost works but the establishment of a national MISSILE defense system.

In order to achieve a motivated compromise of interests of Russia and the USA in this area serves the Inventive method of computer simulation of stable strategic cooperation of national missile defense and strategic offensive weapons in the two countries is a tool to achieve a motivated compromise of interests of Russia and the United States. The resulting computer simulation of the estimated model the combat capabilities of NMD in the reflection missile strikes of different densities can be used in the negotiation process experts of Russia and the United States.

Using this method, cooroy quantitative and qualitative parameters of strategic offensive arms (start II) and NMD are presented as components of a single strategic framework, providing a balance of offensive and defensive weapons of the two countries with a guaranteed reflection NMD missile attacks with WMD on the territory of the first countries done by one of the third countries.

Below is a rough description of the algorithm experts (users) with the claimed method of computer simulation of the strategic balance of offensive and defensive weapons in the two countries.

In memory of the computer recorded data on the quantitative and qualitative types of ballistic missiles, the types of fixed and mobile launching pads, patterns start, the presence and types of responses ABOUT as heavy and light decoys and multiple warheads individual guidance, etc.,) the characteristics of the start of Russia and the United States.

By mutual agreement between the experts of Russia and the United States ask real or imaginary coordinates of the starting units start and a possible area of location of the mobile means the two countries.

In a separate data array in the computer memory enter the data about the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of NMD as a whole. Under the qualitative characteristics relate to data about worketh complexes, the possibility of attracting existing warning system nuclear missile attack and its future modifications as SBIRS-LOW, the possibility of integration NMD system THAAD, etc.

Basic data modelling:

1. Source parameters of the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the start of the two countries when there is relative parity in this area.

2. The main characteristics of NMD, defining its combat capabilities, as well as attract warning system nuclear missile attack.

3. Existing and projected arsenals of WMD and missile delivery systems of third countries.

The result of the simulation are:

1. The main parameters of the NMD, providing its combat capabilities to effectively reflect missile strikes third countries.

2. The necessary excess of the quota at the start and the means of overcoming provided the second country in comparison with the first providing compensation opportunities NMD on reflection retaliation second country.

To quantitative characteristics includes information about the geographical coordinates of missile complexes, the quantities of missiles, article the missile complexes, determining the combat capabilities of NMD.

In part radars such characteristics are:

- the product of the average power of radiation on the aperture of the PS(W. m2)

- sector overview in azimuth and elevation,

- repetition frequency of pulses and the number of them in one pack,

the number of beams of the HEADLIGHTS and the speed of scanning them,

- resolution in three dimensions, the probability p(C) detection of a target at maximum range R, it support and delivery of the target to launch missiles,

the probability p(d) correct selection of warheads (BG) on the backgrounds of decoys (LC) of various types,

- reliability characteristics: the probability p(e), availability and so on,

- basic tactical-technical and probabilistic-temporal characteristics of the involved systems, missile warning, affecting the expansion of defending territories, which are subject to NMD, by granting the preliminary target designation.

In starting installations

- the number of missiles that are launched from each starting installation,

- rate of fire,

- the line of fire,

- the probability besada the correct targeting, get in early start,

- maximum speed and the time it was set from the start, the possibility of maneuvering, including corrective commands from the ground,

- main characteristics of homing (GSO) interceptors theatmosphere and atmospheric interceptions:

- the types and number of sensors,

- range detection and capture objectives,

- selectivity of the possibilities.

Next, by mutual agreement between the experts of both sides to form patterns of different options disarming strikes US in Russia, differ in their quantitative and qualitative characteristics, such as order of battle, the number and types of ballistic missiles, power bombs coordinates purposes, etc., These data are entered into computer memory, and is modeling the possible implications of these impacts as caused by Russia's losses in the start part.

Of the remaining start after disarming strike, which brought the most damage, expert are formed by patterns of response options beats Russia in the United States, these data are entered into the computer, and modeling of hostilities NMD at their reflection.

ultralights warheads m from the number n, participating in a retaliatory strike. The calculation is performed for each of the options retaliation by the formulas given in [2] for specific parameters NMD stored in computer memory. Experts of the two sides produced a criterion unacceptable for the United States of damage from retaliation Russia, sufficient to deter US from applying a first disarming strike. Quantitatively, this criterion is expressed as a pair of numbers <mPmin(mmin)> determining the minimum number of warheads, penetrating through NMD, with a minimum probability. This pair of numbers is entered in the computer in which pairwise comparisons were computed for the various options retaliation values <m, P(m)> number <m, Rmin(mmin)>.

If is a pair of numbers <m*, P*(m)> satisfying the condition m* mminand R*(m*) Pmin(mmin), it has been decided that the national missile defense system with the given parameters do not violate the existing balance start of Russia and the United States.

If this condition is not met, the iterative cycle increase the number of warheads n in a retaliatory strike Russia until a value of n = nminwhen running okay compared with the United States, which would be restored impaired NMD strategic balance.

Between the experts of both sides can be achieved agreement in accordance with which restore the strategic balance could be achieved by allowing Russia to have in the Arsenal start ballistic missiles with MIRV individual guidance.

After reaching agreement on the issue of the strategic balance of strategic offensive and defensive arms of Russia and the United States is to test the effectiveness of NMD in the reflection missile strikes "third countries".

To do this in the computer memory contains a data array containing information about the characteristics of weapons of mass destruction (nuclear, chemical and bacteriological), as well as missile means of delivery, which have or could potentially have a "third countries" for which, but the opinion of experts, the strategy of deterrence is ineffective.

Taking into account many factors, these countries are ranked according to the degree of danger, and with reference to the country posing the highest risk, are formed patterns of possible options for missile strikes on territor the Xia modeling fighting NMD at their reflection.

The expert appointed by the threshold value the efficiency of NMD in the reflection of her missile strikes "third countries" in the maximum value for the probability of hitting all m warheads participating in the strike Pthen(0). From the calculated values of the probabilities of the destruction of all warheads in different variants missile strike allocate the smallest value of Pmin(0) and compare it with the threshold.

The efficiency of NMD is determined by the criterion of the probability of hitting all involved in the strike warheads, calculated by the formula given in the source [2]. When the condition Rmin(0) Pthen(0) consider NMD effective in repelling missile strikes "third countries".

If this condition is not met, the iterative cycle increase the number of interceptors NMD up to the value at which this condition is true.

Calculated this way, the number of interceptor missiles will be a new option NMD for which you want to check the balance of strategic offensive and defensive arms of Russia and the United States.

This check is carried out as described above, and in case of violation of the balance he postanal which are colored display on the display screen of the main results of modelling and calculations in the form of diagrams with superimposed tables, that enables visual comparison and selection, as well as the comfort of the operators (experts). This is achieved by setting Cvetkovi scale conversion of quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the original data used for the computer simulation of various processes and calculations, as well as the obtained results, in the appropriate figures and tables with their subsequent display in the form of diagrams [4], providing a visual form of the structure and dynamics of heterogeneous States of objects.

The invention can be used for modeling of the military situation in negotiations aimed at reaching a reasoned compromise of interests of Russia and the USA in this field.

Sources of information

1. Article As Cherevkov Stability on a new basis", Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye, a weekly Supplement to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, February 2-4, 2001. 4/226).

2. Article Dina L. Wilkening "a Simple model for evaluating the effectiveness of the ballistic missile defense", publ. in the journal "Science and global security", so 8. vol. 2, February 2000

3. U.S. patent 6215498, publ. 10.04.2001,

4. GOST 27833-88, "Srcpos computer modeling strategic balance of offensive and defensive strategic weapons in the two countries, namely, that the computer database is divided into sections for the formation of arrays of data containing information about the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of funds of arms of countries, and entered these data into the computer database, then using Cvetkovi scale data conversion placing anti-missile systems for national missile defense in the image display color image data generated in the highlighted boxes on the display screen, wherein the first dataset includes information about the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of strategic offensive arms of the first country, the data of the second array, contains data about the means of the system of national missile defense of the first country is divided into five groups containing respectively the 1st and geographical coordinates placement of missile systems for national missile defense of the first country and defending them to the areas of the first country 2nd - information about the items included in missile complexes, 3-I - parameters of the starting units, the 4th - the number and parameters protivoskleroticheskim data placement missile systems for national missile defense of the first country and defending their territories in the image, using the first Tsvetkova scale display in the first selected window on the display screen an image of a map of the territory of the first country, indicating it coordinates the placement of missile complexes and defending them to the areas of the first country in the second selected window displays color images of missile complexes of the first countries in the third selected window display tabular presentation of the parameters of the starting units, interceptor missiles and radar stations included in the second array, then on the computer screen combined image generated in the first, second and third Windows, receiving the first mnemonic representing the image of the system of national missile defense the first country then in the third dataset includes information about the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of strategic offensive arms of the second and fourth selected window on the display screen displays an image of a map of the territory of another country placed on it by means of strategic offensive arms of another country, then upon request of the operator of the first array data to produce quantitative data is concerned in the first overpowering shock of strategic offensive arms of the first country on the territory of another country, and on the basis of the selected data form the fourth array data and put it in the computer database, then in the fifth selected window on the display screen displays a tabular view of the data on quantitative characteristics of strategic offensive arms of the first countries involved in the first overpowering shock of strategic offensive arms of the first country on the territory of another country, and then specify the second Tsvetkova scale conversion of quantitative and qualitative characteristics of strategic offensive arms of the first country and the areas of the first country, which are subject to the actions of these funds, participating in the first overpowering shock of strategic offensive arms of the first country but the territory of another country, in the image, and using the second Tsvetkova scale, in the sixth selected window on the display screen displays color images of the areas of the second country, which are subject to the actions of strategic offensive arms of the first countries involved in the first disarming strike on the territory of another country, then on the screen of strategic offensive arms of the first country participating in the first disarming strike on the territory of another country, and based on the analysis of the obtained images establish the facts of the destruction of strategic offensive arms of another country, then in the fifth array data include data on the quantitative and qualitative characteristics caused by the second country damage, compare the data from the third and fifth arrays of data and by comparing the results form the sixth array data on quantitative and qualitative characteristics of strategic offensive arms of another country, remaining after disarming the missile strike, then on request of the operator of the sixth data array to produce several sets of data about the tools of strategic offensive arms of another country, each of them corresponds to a different version of strategic offensive arms of another country participating in a retaliatory strike another country on the territory of the first country, and the selected data sets in the form of the seventh array data entered into the computer database, then set the third Tsvetkova scale conversion of quantitative and qualitative characteristics of options means strategierou country and the first country that are covered by these funds, in the image, and using this third Tsvetkova scale display data about the cases of strategic offensive arms of another country participating in a retaliatory strike, the first mnemonic representing the image of the system of national missile defense of the first country and get the third mnemonic combat engagement means of the system of national missile defense of the first country and all variants of strategic offensive arms of another country participating in a retaliatory strike, then determine the effectiveness of the system of national missile defense the first country in the reflection retaliation second country according to the criterion of the probability of penetration through it asked the number of warheads m among n participating in various embodiments of strategic offensive arms of another country participating in a retaliatory strike, which is determined by the formula

< / BR>
where n is the total number of warheads of another country participating in the strike;

m - set the number of warheads of the second country, penetrating through the first defense of the country;

toy defense of the first country

p(a)= p1(a/b)(p(b)

where p1(a/b) is the conditional probability of the warhead one anti-missile if it is the correct detection and selection, as well as the reliable operation of the elements of the system of national missile defense;

p(b) is the resulting probability of correct execution of all transactions and events that affect the implementation of the interceptor to its target,

if this

p(b)= p(C)p(d)p(e)

where p(C) is the probability of target detection, tracking and delivery of the target;

p(d) is the probability of correct selection warheads on the background of decoys;

p(e) - probability of failure of the main equipment;

if p(a) = const for all warheads and missiles,

p(o) is the probability of hitting all m warheads will be equal to p(o)= (p(a))m,

when the condition is met, namely, that one target is shooting at the same time r propiolactone,

pr(a/b)= 1-(1-p1(a/b))r= 1-Lr,

where L= 1-p1(a/b);

L - index "permeability" national missile defense in the second country for each warhead,

then the received data R(m) as the eighth of the array is recorded in the computer memory, then setmin(mminthrough a system of national missile defense in a retaliatory strike another country on the territory of the first country, put them in the computer memory and pairwise compare data <m, p(m)> with predetermined threshold values <mpmin(mmin)>, while if is a pair of numbers <m, R*(m*)> meet the condition

m*mminand R*(m*)pmin(mmin)

decide that the national missile defense does not violate the existing strategic balance of strategic offensive arms of the two countries, if the mentioned condition is not satised for any pair of numbers, in an iterative cycle increase by one the number of warheads n participating in a retaliatory strike another country, and determine the number of nminwhen running the specified condition, then determine k by the formula

k = nmin- n,

where k is the estimate of the disturbance of the existing balance in the field of strategic offensive arms of the two countries in favor of the first countries due to the country's system of national missile defense, and increasing the number of strategic nashuatelegraph weapons in the two countries, then bring in the ninth array of data about the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of means of mass destruction weapons of third countries, rank descending data on the quantitative characteristics of means of mass destruction weapons of third countries and provide data to a third country higher grade, which is recorded in the database of the computer in the form of a tenth of the data array, then at the request of the operator of the tenth data array to produce several sets of data about the means of mass destruction weapons of the third country, each of which corresponds to a different option strike a third country through the territory of the first country, and the received sets of data in the form of the eleventh array are entered in the computer database, then ask the fourth Tsvetkova scale conversion of quantitative and qualitative characteristics of variants of means of mass destruction weapons of the third country of the highest rank and area of the territory of the first countries, which are subject to the actions of these funds in the image, then using the fourth Tsvetkova scale, display data of all variants of the impact of a third country with the highest rank on the territory of the first countries in the first mnemonic representing depicts the engagement means of the system of national missile defense of the first country and funds of weapons of mass destruction of a third country with the highest rank, then determine the effectiveness of the system of national missile defense the first country in the reflection of her various options missile attack a third country with the highest rank according to the criterion of the probability of hitting it all m participating in the strike warheads in accordance with the expression

p(o)= (p(a))m,

provided that one sang is shooting at the same time r is erected obtained for each variant of the probabilities of the destruction as the twelfth array data is recorded in the computer memory, set the threshold of the effectiveness of the system of national missile defense the first country in the reflection of its missile attack a third country in the maximum value for the probability of hitting all m warheads pthen(0) a third country involved in the attack on the territory of the first country, and at the request of the operator of the received values of the probability of hitting the twelfth array select pmin(0) and compare it with the said specified threshold value, then the condition

pmin(0)pmin(0),

consider the system of national missile defense the first country with data options on the tools of the system of national predivorce the nation and at the same time not violating the strategic balance of offensive and defensive strategic weapons in the two countries by increasing the number of warheads the second country on the value of k compared to the first country, and upon failure to comply with the above conditions in an iterative cycle increase data on the number of interceptors contained in the second data array, to the value at which this condition is true, and correct data on the number of interceptor missiles of the second array by increasing the number of interceptors on the calculated value, and then, using the obtained values, determine the probability of penetration warheads p(m) for a counter attack another country on the territory of the first countries to determine the new value of k and increasing the number of strategic offensive arms of another country on k, and restore the balance of offensive and defensive strategic weapons in the two countries.

 

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69 cl, 8 dwg, 1 tbl

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