The method of rapid earthquake prediction

 

(57) Abstract:

The invention can be used in seismology, in particular in observing systems and data to predict earthquakes. The technical result of the invention is to improve the reliability of the forecast of earthquakes, ease of technical execution, as well as reducing the timing measurements for the assessment of seismic state in a given habitat and provide opportunities for the individual control of seismic state in any given location. The technical result is ensured by the fact that the way the Express control of earthquakes controlled environment is a source of groundwater, which put two electrodes of the measuring device at a given distance from each other, provide measurements of the conductivity of this medium and make the comparison of the obtained value with a reference value of the electrical conductivity of the same environment, the corresponding normal seismic condition. At the same time as a controlled water environment can be used a source of groundwater flowing from the bowels of the earth to the surface. In addition, the measuring device can be.p. f-crystals.

The invention relates to the field of seismology, in particular, systems for monitoring and processing data for the forecasting of earthquakes.

Many of the evils and miseries of the inhabitants of the Earth bring natural disasters. Especially dangerous volcanic eruptions and earthquakes, because they are almost always unexpected and people do not have time to leave their homes.

Developed a large number of different methods of forecasting of earthquakes, the task of which is in the preliminary seismic control of the situation.

There is a method of prognosis of adverse events, including continuous monitoring of time-varying parameters geophysical field definition values of period and frequency of oscillation amplitude of the controlled parameters. The conclusion about the possibility of catastrophic phenomena do in the event of a change of geophysical fields sinusoidal oscillatory process with the period from 100 to 1000000 with the amplitude of the oscillations, significantly different from background values for this area (see application EN 92006415, MCI G 01 V 11/00, 1995).

The known method of earthquake prediction, consisting of RegistryCleaner carried out by the simultaneous increase of the ratio of the total energy and average energy of signals of electromagnetic radiation and acoustic emission, as well as the maximum energy of the ultrasonic signals sounding (see inventor's certificate SU 1670651 A1, G 01 V 11/00, 1991).

There is a method of long-term prediction of time of earthquakes, based on the measurement of variations of the electromagnetic field telluric current Earth. The method consists in the continuous recording daily abnormal rhythm between the two background conditions seymoseaking period. The duration of such status of the region in each case is individual. The forecast of the dates of future earthquakes are based on the duration of the anomaly in time and is determined by the formula (see application EN 93027744, G 01 V 3/00, 1996).

There is also known a method of earthquake prediction, in which to increase the probability of detecting a characteristic of the precursor and the processing speed of the signal, carry out the conversion of seismic waves into an electrical signal and the taking of samples of the measured value at multiple points in the space. This creates on the selected profile monitoring measuring range in the form of a rectangular grid of 11 instantaneous meter, measure the signal amplitude at each node of the lattice with skarinou less than 1, form matronym time and judge the magnitude and time of an expected earthquake (see patent RU 2130195 C1, G 01 V 1/00, 9/00, 1999).

Despite the fact that in the known methods mentioned above, we use modern achievements of science and technology for fast and accurate identification of change processes in the deep subsurface of the earth, they are not reliable, because it does not allow time to warn the population about the emerging threat of seismic situation in a given area. In addition, they are quite difficult in technical execution and require long processing of measurement results.

The closest analogue of the claimed invention is a method of exploration that is used, in particular, for earthquake prediction, in which the excitation current pulses in a controlled environment (section of the earth) perpendicular to the installed electrical lines and measuring first and second differences of potentials with the help of a grounded dipole and quadrupole settings. The measured differences define the tensor characteristic conductivity. Change elements of the tensor characteristics over time judge about changing the geoelectric section property (patent RU 1835939 C, MCI G 01 V 3/00, 1995).

The disadvantage of this method is complexity in the Reda.

In addition, all known methods based on the use of mass media to alert the public about adverse seismic situation in a given habitat and in case of finding a subject in a seismically active zone where there is no radio or television, or their failure, it is not possible to estimate seismic zone stay for the forecasting of earthquakes in it.

Technical problem on which the invention is directed, is to increase the reliability of the forecast of earthquakes, ease of technical execution, as well as reducing the timing measurements for the assessment of seismic state in a given habitat and, in addition, providing opportunities for individual control of seismic state in any given location.

The technical result from the use of the invention it is provided that in the way of rapid prediction of earthquakes, including the measurement time of the conductivity when the excitation current in a controlled environment and comparative evaluation of the measurement results, as controlled environment using a groundwater source, where at a given distance Oh of the water environment, then compare the measurement results with a reference value of the electrical conductivity of this medium, characteristic of normal seismic condition, and judge the adverse seismic condition in a given habitat in excess of the measured values of electrical conductivity relative to the reference values.

Furthermore, the definition of reference values of electrical conductivity and control the measurement of the conductivity of the water environment is carried out at the same temperature, because the temperature change of the water environment is changing and the value of its conductivity.

This measuring device can be made portable, contains the power supply (unit batteries) associated with the regulator to ensure the measurement of the conductivity of the water environment in any given location.

In addition, the electrodes of the measuring device is placed in a controlled aquatic environment is always at the same depth, keeping the same distance between them.

As a controlled environment, you can use the source water flowing from the bowels of the earth, or water from wells located in areas unfavorable odawise in quiet (normal) seismic condition, constantly current sources of groundwater rising to the surface from the bowels of the earth, are almost constant (established) number of substances and elements dissolved in water. Each source has its own chemical composition, characteristic. This is due to the fact that an underground stream on its way enriched by substances through which it flows. The presence in water saturated or unsaturated salt solution add water properties of electrical conductivity in varying degrees. As mentioned, each source has its own composition of chemical substances and, therefore, a certain amount of electrical conductivity, which will always be constant during normal seismic situation for this source. With the advent of micro-cracks and channels in the bowels of the Earth changes its seismic condition dramatically increases the electrical conductivity of groundwater sources, as water, washing them, on their way filled with more items, changing its chemical composition. The sharp increase in the values of electrical conductivity (decrease in resistance) underground source is a sign of a future earthquake in a given habitat.

For implementing the method e is VA, electrodes to a predetermined depth and at the same distance from each other, and measure time using known measuring devices, conductivity of water sources in a given area, and analyze measurement results by comparing them with a reference conductivity values for each of the controlled source of water identified under normal seismic condition, in the case of sharp increase of the conductivity values of the water sources is judged on the occurrence of adverse seismic conditions in a given habitat. The method of rapid prediction of earthquakes in a given habitat is carried out by measuring the water environment, such as water sources, in time, in several places they are released to the surface or by measuring the water from the wells. In addition, analysis of the results of measurements of several water sources in a given habitat in the event of a sharp increase of the conductivity of their waters will allow roughly predict the scale and the epicenter of future earthquakes.

At the same time to ensure the accuracy of rapid prediction of earthquakes in any given place and having, for example, the difficult terrain and renanim, contains the power supply and is equipped with advanced voltage stabilizer for improved measurement accuracy.

As a portable measuring device containing a power source and a stabilizer, for the measurement of the conductivity of the water source used, for example, multimeter (tester), the electrode which is immersed in the aqueous environment of the source, let the current carry out the measurement of the conductivity of this medium, followed by the assessment of the results of measurement with a reference value characteristic of a given water source.

To ensure accuracy of measurement results the measurement of these conductivity values is performed at the same temperature, immersing the electrodes for the excitation current in the aquatic environment of the source is always the same size, keeping the same distance between the electrodes.

The measurement results of the reference conductivity values of each water source in a given habitat at different temperatures are tabulated for ease of comparative evaluation.

The method of rapid prediction of earthquakes in a given habitat allows you to quickly and simply ritalinic devices to ensure the accuracy of the prediction by the use of portable measuring device equipped with a current source and a voltage regulator, for placing them in a controlled environment at any specified remote location, as well as conduct individual earthquake prediction by the subject in the seismically unfavorable habitat.

1. The method of rapid prediction of earthquakes, including the measurement time of the conductivity when the excitation current in a controlled environment and comparative evaluation of the measurement results, wherein the controlled environment is a source of groundwater, which put two electrodes of the measuring device at a given distance from each other, measure the conductivity of this water environment, compare the obtained value with a reference value of the electrical conductivity of this medium determined at normal seismic situation, after which judge adverse seismic condition in excess of the measured values of electrical conductivity with respect to its reference values for the aquatic environment.

2. The method according to p. 1, characterized in that the measuring device has a source Peter> 3. The method according to p. 1 or 2, characterized in that the temperature of the aqueous medium during the test the electrical conductivity measurements should correspond to the temperature of the water environment in determining reference values of the conductivity of the water environment during normal seismic situation.

4. The method according to p. 1 or 2, characterized in that the electrodes of the measuring device is placed in a controlled aquatic environment is always at the same depth, while maintaining the same distance between them.

5. The method according to any of paragraphs.1 to 4, characterized in that the controlled environment is a source of groundwater coming to the surface.

 

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