The way local express forecast processing reservoirs

 

(57) Abstract:

The invention relates to the field of hydraulic engineering construction, and is intended for local forecast erosions in a typical platform regions, as in the early stages of design, including the siting and operation of reservoirs, and to justify schemes of engineering protection of territories from geological hazards. The method is applied using empirically identified patterns of development of processing time on the basis of once conducted the long-term monitoring observations (measurements) the main factors and the use of an integral indicators (such as banks, duration besidesthese period and processing volumes) at different stages and scenarios development process. According to the amount of destruction the amount of retreat of the shore is obtained from the expression V/H, where V is the volume of peregruzoshniy, m3/m; H - height of the abrasive ledge, M. the Invention improves the accuracy and efficiency of local forecasts and dramatically reduce the effort needed for the justification of forecasts. 6 Il., table 1.

The invention relates to the field of GI is the destruction of reservoirs, including projected in a typical platform conditions without major landslides, viscolastic and biogenic rocks. When you change (deviation) from these conditions on the basis of regional (geological) laws apply special transition rates. This question has its own significance and in this application will not be considered. Used to study engineering protection of territories from geological hazards.

In the scientific literature there are three groups of methods of forecast evaluation processing reservoirs:

1) energy (Katugin that is, [1], Kondrat'ev N. E. [2] and others);

2) a comparative geological (Zolotarev, S. [3], Rozovsky L. B. [4] and others);

3) stochastic (Epishin C. K., Aktaran Century. N. [5]).

Energy methods in the forecast mainly consider the energy of excitement (hydrological factor), the scope of their application is limited to simple and homogeneous in engineering-geological conditions, characterized by low accuracy of the projections. For their study requires considerable effort for each calculated cross-section. Applicable only at the first stage of processing banks dastych conditions of the reservoirs. The main difficulties that reduce the accuracy of the estimates in these methods are associated with the selection of reliable counterparts, and selection criteria of similarity that can rarely be done in the real world.

The method of stochastic models [5] in its technical essence is the closest to the proposed technical solution (prototype). This method consists in taking into account the dependencies erosions from various natural and anthropogenic factors according to routine observations with the construction of stochastic process models. Its main disadvantage, despite the great work which reduce the accuracy of the forecast evaluation is the underestimation of the General laws of the development process, the stages of formation of banks, requires a large amount of routine observations calculated for each cross-section separately. The number of such cross-sections in the past was limited and they were placed randomly, without taking into account the diversity of natural conditions. The results obtained for each cross-section may not be used on other sites, did not reveal significant regional patterns of development process. A common disadvantage of the known methods of the forecast of ozena is on limited factual material on individual profiles, without studying the General laws and zoning (typing) banks in natural and man-made factors, i.e., a reflection of the individual sides of the process of destruction of the coast.

The regime's long-term monitoring of this process on many reservoirs showed that the scatter of the actual value processing banks formed the same type of rock complexes and are at the same stage of development, often comparable with the accuracy of existing methods of prediction, was not taken into account the factor of time - duration besidesthese period. All this led to the creation of the proposed new technical solutions based on detailed analysis of the spatial-temporal regularities of development processes reservoirs (PPBV) of Russia and adjacent countries as materials of their own long-term observations (measurements), and published data.

An object of the invention is to improve the accuracy of the estimates of processing reservoirs in various natural and man-made conditions, at different stages of this process, under different scenarios of development of the latter, giving the prediction efficiency and the implementation of the reduction of labor costs in the located and siting. The latter is very important in connection with the accumulated negative experiences of choice for the construction and operation of reservoirs.

This objective is achieved in that the multi-year performance monitoring on all existing in Russia reservoirs perform once with a summary of the measurements for each selected type of banks, based on these set the basic laws of erosions in various regional geological, zonal climatic and anthropogenic conditions, determine the integral average characteristics erosions: rock complexes, the amount of damage and the duration besidesthese period by the stages of the development process, establish the fundamental possibility of processing Bank angle shallows by generalized measurements construct nomograms, reflecting the correlation of the integral characteristics of the process, and local Express the expected processing volumes by well-known rock complexes (type shore) and duration besidesthese period for these nomograms provide three possible scenarios of the development process: pessimistic - P (with maximum possible damage with a probability of 0.2), the predicted movement of the edge of the broken shore (L, m) set the expression

L = V/H,

where H is the average height of the Bank above the normal retaining the reservoir level, m;

V - volume of peregruzoshniy, m3/m

In Fig. 1 shows the estimated projected diameter on the sample area of the Tsimlyansk reservoir, Fig. 2 - map besidesthese period on the reservoirs of Russia, in Fig. 3-6 - Nomograph for determining the intensity of processing reservoirs at first (Fig. 3,4) and the second (Fig. 5, 6) stages of the development process in the most likely (Fig. 3, 5) and pessimistic versions of the development process.

The drawings are given the following notation:

1 - normal supply level (NPU); 2 - level drawdown (CA); 3 - Bay; 4 - marginal ledge; 5 - projected retreat of the coast according to the prototype to include reservoir; 6 - actual deviation of the Bank as at 1990; 7 - Express-forecast the most probable variant of the proposed method; 8 - the same as for the pessimistic variant; 9 - the duration of the destruction of the coast during the year (besidesthis period); 10 - loess and loess-like rocks; 11 - marine clay (Hazar and Khvalynsk); 12 - fine Sands and silt; 13 - sandy loam and loam medium and light; 14 - sand is or loam; 17 - gypsum and anhydrite; 18 - clay literaturovedenie; 19 - sandstones, siltstones, mudstones, limestones, marls, Dolomites; 20 - granites, liparites, quartzite and other igneous and metamorphic rocks.

The method is as follows. According to many years of routine observations on 100 reservoirs of Russia in a typical platform conditions - plain within malozatratnyh (less than 6 points) plates and newstructure tectonic blocks, experiencing currently lowering in development zone of melt rocks, performed once, after summarizing the numerous factual material (in-situ measurements) for each Bank establish the basic patterns of erosions in various regional geological, zonal climatic and anthropogenic conditions. For the proposed Express Outlook are essential following the established regularities. The process occurs over time depending on the composition of the main complex in the impact zone of the reservoir in stages. Depending on species the speed of processing may vary more than an order of magnitude, for example, the second stage in the mudstones she is 4 m3/m year, and in loess - 58,5 edeleny two stages. At the first stage of processing immediately after filling the reservoir, these speeds are the maximum, in the second stage they are down more than 5 times. This is due to the formation of shoals, absorbing wave energy impacts. For similar banks total geological factors-conditions lead to changes in the intensity of erosions on average up to 50%, the remaining 50% are energy unrest, and other climatic factors. On the basis of established patterns define the integral average characteristics erosions: rock complexes (types of banks), the amount of damage and the duration besidesthese period by the stages of the development process, directly includes all factors-conditions of development process, with the exception of wave energy, which is taken into account indirectly through zonal climatic factors, in particular through the duration besidesthese period in the same climatic conditions for each type of Bank. Besidesthis period has a significant effect on the fracture process and the first time it is included in the calculation scheme, integrating all zonal climatic factors (hydrological, wind, temperature). For example, the increase in the output full-scale long-term measurements at 100 reservoirs of Russia prepared a table (see at the end of the description) summarize data. For a local profile (cross-section) of the forecast process evaluation for the designed reservoir must have a topographic profile, mark NPU (1) and CONDITION (2) reservoir data on dominant complex species (10-20), outgoing Bank in the area of fluctuations in the level and duration besidesthese period of the reservoir (9). In the beginning establish the fundamental possibility of processing the shore, composed of certain rocks on the table. If the steepness of the coast between the NPI (1) and CONDITION (2) is greater than angle relatively stable shoals (3) in these rocks in the first stage of the development process, then the coast will be destroyed, if less, then no. In the latter case, the prediction is not performed. When assessing development process variant On and In the steepness of the banks compared to the mean value of the angle sustainable shallows, and according to the variant of P with the minimum value of this angle.

On the coast area of the projected reservoir (without building the cross-section) in addition, you should have a map of the shoreline type and topographic map of this area. Types of coasts are installed on the slope and prevailing complex rocks (one cross-section at 400-500 m of coastline). G is lelno the shoreline at NPI (1) prior to processing. To establish complex species requires going to the locality where you design the placement of the reservoir.

Operating reservoirs in the absence of routine observations, the forecast is carried out as previously described using data on the duration besidesthese period and reconnaissance survey of the coasts with the establishment of types of banks.

According to the summary data in-situ measurements of integral characteristics build map besidesthese period on the reservoirs of Russia (Fig. 2) and nomograms for determining the intensity of erosions (Fig. 3-6).

Local Express forecast envisages three scenarios for the process: pessimistic (P), most likely (In) and optimistic (O). The pessimistic variant with probability 0.2 correspond to the maximum destruction possible with unfavorable combinations of factors over the forecast period. The most likely prediction processing, with probability 0.6 meet the average size of peregruzoshniy registered at existing reservoirs. The optimistic variant, with probability 0.2, characterizes the minimum possible dimensions of the destruction of the gross errors. Option P is used to calculate damages in the study of the construction of the most critical structures, and option - for planning the use of land for agriculture. In other cases, the option - O.

Then on the same table defines the minimum, average and maximum duration of the first stage erosions, respectively for options About, and P. After that, the map (Fig. 2) set mean duration besidesthese period (9) on this site.

The annual processing in the first stage of the development process variant On and determine for known complexes breeds (types of banks - 10-20) and duration besidesthese period on the nomogram in Fig. 3, and according to the variant of the P - Fig. 4. To obtain the total processing volume for the first stage or for a certain period of time within this phase, received the annual destruction multiplied depending on the forecast for the minimum, average or maximum duration of the stage or the estimated period of time. For the second stage are used nomograms in Fig. 5 and 6.

The linear displacement of the edge of razrushaet is useni (V, m3/m) for a specified period according to the expression L = V/H, where H is the average height of the shore (4) above NPU (1) for the period of the forecast, m

In Fig. 1 shows the comparative results of the predictions of the prototype (5) the proposed method (7 and 8) and the actual processing (6). Thus, the closest (exact) was proposed method of forecast of a probable option.

For explanations of these operations is an example. You must define a processing volume 2 big terraces with a height of 9 m above NPU, composed of fine-grained sand on the 20th year of operation of the reservoir. The height of the terraces is determined (measured) in the natural environment, are also installed and breed her composing. NPI is set by the designers. Duration besidesthese period is set by the map (Fig. 2) and is 210 days. The levels of filling and drawdown fall on the ledge of the terrace (4) with a slope of 6o(measured in situ). According to table angle relatively stable shoals in the shallow Sands of less than 6oso the coast will be destroyed. The duration of the first stage of the recycling banks for option P is 7 years (the maximum on the table for fine Sands), according to the variant of the O - 2 and In 4 years the sory processing volume of the considered banks for the first stage of the development process according to the variant of Paragraph (7 years) will be equal to Vp1= 92 7 = 644 m3/m

Processing volumes shore options About and therefore becomes Vo1= 48 2 = 96 m3/m, Vin1= 48 4 = 192 m3/m

48 - taken by curve 12 with the Nomograph in Fig. 3, i.e. On the magnitude of the volume of peregruzoshniy accepted the same, and the time on the table is 2 and 4 years, i.e., average and minimum values. It is established on the basis of generalization of the observation process.

In the second stage of development banks intensity annual damage is reduced (by nomograms in Fig. 5 and 6 to 17 m3/m options On and In and to 6 m3/m - variant P.

With regard to the first stage of processing, the total amount of destruction sandy shores for 20 years will be considered variants in order of decreasing severity of consequences

Vo20= 96+(17 18) = 402 m3/m;

Vin20= 192+(17 16) = 464 m3/m;

Vp20= 644+(36 13) = 1112 m3/m

18 obtained from 20-2, 16 - 20-4 and 13 - 20-7, i.e. the second stage is equal to the difference between the total time and the duration of the first stage obtained by the table.

As you can see, the increase amount is the first stage of peregruzoshniy. Therefore, predictive estimate only the second stage of exploited reservoirs is carried out on the proposed method only for options and P.

The linear displacement of the edge of the destroyed bench terraces (L, m) on the first and second stage processing is set on the corresponding throughputs obtained previously for a specified period of 20 years according to the expression L = V/H, where H is the average height of the terrace above the NPI for the period of the forecast, m

For each case, when the height of the terrace above the NPU 9 m linear displacement over 20 years of development process on options for O, P will be:

Lo20= 402 : 9 = 44.7 m;

Lin20= 464 : 9 = 51.6 m;

Lp20= 1112 : 9 = 123.6 m

Sources used in compiling the invention

1. Katugin E., geotechnical studies and forecasts recycling reservoirs. - In the book: Suggestions for learning processing reservoirs. - M.: Gosgeoltechizdat, 1959, - S. 3-89.

2. Kondratiev, N. E. Forecast reformation reservoirs under the action of wind waves. - Proceedings Of The AGM. hydrologist, in-TA. - vol. 58(110), 1956, -S. 12-19.

3. Zolotarev, S. geological Engineering studied the M, 1961.-so 1, -n-50-63.

4. Rozovsky L. B. forecast processing reservoirs by analogy. - M.: Nauka, 1961, - S. 45-57.

5. Epishin C. K., Aktaran Century. N. The forecast process of the formation of reservoirs. - M.: Energy, 1979, - S. 95-111.

The way local Express forecast processing reservoirs, including the study of factors affecting the destruction of banks, including engineering and geological features of the coast, the properties of the main rock complexes in the zone of abrasion, petrovaradinska and level regimes of water bodies, construction of topographic forecast profile, the measurement of the steepness of the slopes and heights of abrasion of the ledge, forecast the magnitude of the moving edge destructible Bank for a specified period on the basis of generalization of data obtained by the program many years of routine observations, characterized in that the multi-year performance monitoring on all existing in Russia reservoirs perform once with a summary of the measurements for each selected type of shore, on their basis, establish the basic patterns of erosions in various regional geological, zonal climatic and anthropogenic conditions, determine the integral cf is besidesthese period by the stages of the development process, establish the fundamental possibility of recycling banks in angle shallows by generalized measurements construct nomograms, reflecting the correlation of the integral characteristics of the process, and the local Express the expected processing volumes by well-known rock complexes (type shore) and duration besidesthese period for these nomograms provide three possible scenarios of the development process: pessimistic - with the greatest possible damage, with a probability of 0.2, most likely with probability 0.6 and optical - with a probability of 0.2, and the corresponding forward-looking move L, m-edge destructible shore set expression

L = V/H,

where H is the average height of the Bank above the normal retaining the level of the reservoir, m;

V - volume of peregruzoshniy, m3/m

 

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