Method of simulation of emergency response activities at automatics and telemechanics facilities

FIELD: physics, control.

SUBSTANCE: method of simulation of emergency response activities is intended for estimate of average time until recovery of operability of railway automatics and telemechanics facilities (RATMF). The method includes a procedure of determination of average time until RATMF recovery and the software complex. The constant values on the rail road section are entered, and also the climate features are represented as elementary data arrays, each of which corresponds to the section block. Also the general auxiliary data including the time of simulation are entered. After the data entry the simulation is started that consists in creation of elementary random events - time intervals falling to various operations in view of distribution laws and constant values of the data on the section, interrelation at implementation of the process of maintenance and repair of RATMF, and subsequent summation of elementary random events in view of probability of repeated occurrence with the purpose of obtaining of multiple time instances until recovery for each section block. As a result of obtaining of multiple time instances until recovery for each section block the arithmetic average of all time instances is calculated, and the mean time until recovery of RATMF is determined.

EFFECT: obtaining of the optimum value of average time until RATMF recovery.

1 tbl

 

The presented method simulation of emergency recovery works (ABP) in the sector of automation and remote control is designed to calculate the average time to restore operability of railway automatics and telemechanics, includes a method for determining the estimated values of mean time to repair of technical means (RATM) and functional software package, this model implements.

Known technical solution patent No. 2357215 "Method of repair and maintenance and used in the way of hardware-software complex for diagnostics and system for quality control of repairs and maintenance offers a purely deterministic (deterministic) simulation model on the basis of clearly defined structural diagram of a hardware-software complex system.

The advantage of this solution is the ability to electronically gather measurement data and its qualitative assessment, that allows to eliminate the "human factor" and to ensure the objectivity and reliability of the measurement data and inspection results.

The disadvantage of this method is the absence of stochastic (uncertain) component in the model system maintenance tools RATM and statistical is on account of random factors, that is not possible to adapt this model to develop a hardware-software complex.

The method of simulation ATS in the sector of automation and telemechanics of the method consists in the following.

The average time to recovery in General is defined as the sum of the average seek time of failure Tn, average time alerts about a new fault Ton, average time spent on passing to the failed device TCRand actually the average time Troubleshooting Tus.

Each of the components in the formula (1), in turn, can further be divided into components.

Analyzing the formula (1), we can conclude that the time to recovery directly and indirectly depends on many factors, such as: technical specifications used on site systems INTRODUCTION, technology maintenance and operation systems of railway automatics and TELEMECHANICS on the site, the equipment of the railway, its configuration, the number and qualifications of personnel, level and quantity of technical equipment for fault diagnosis and predating state systems INTRODUCTION, ways of entrance (approach) to the place of failure, weather and climatic characteristics of the region, to which m is the part of the railroad.

In this case, the analytical methods for many reasons, not applicable, so use the method of statistical simulation Monte Carlo method.

The method consists in the following. Using pseudo-random sensors using the statistics of failures "played" pseudo-random manner, time, place and cause of failure of technical facilities. Further, all deterministic events and processes ABP model describes the usual deterministic formulas and formalized procedures. In fact, the specific implementation (realization) of a random process ABP is each time different, so the result of statistical modeling ("draw") each time you receive a new, distinct from other implementation of the investigated random process ABP.

A single "run" built a simulation model allows one to obtain one "artificial" implementation of the investigated random process ABP and, accordingly, one value of Tinfrom a sample to estimate its mean. Many implementations, the resulting multiple "run" model, will be above the sample, with which the known methods of mathematical statistics can be obtained the average design average time to restore the Oia health T in.

Development of a simulation model can be divided into several stages:

1. Stage failure occurs". This operation initiates the whole cycle, because, to resolve the failure, he should be able to occur. Since failure of a technical object MUST be random in nature, it is necessary to "play"using the appropriate distribution.

2. The stage of "notification of failure". Notification of failure may be different depending on the presence or absence of means of control of the technical state of the system LIE on the plot.

3. Stage "a preliminary analysis of the problem" involves awareness of information, analysis on the basis of the obtained information, a preliminary determination of the nature of the failure and its location.

4. Stage preparation includes the preparation of spare parts, tools and the necessary kit to correct the failure.

5. Stage movement to the location of a fault". Time passage is substantially depends on the placement and location of failure, and the method of delivery personnel to the location of a fault (the latter depends, including equipment distance vehicles), entrance ways, method of maintenance, the physical condition of the work of the ICA, going to the elimination of failure, time of year, weather conditions and other

6. Stage "Troubleshooting". The search time of a fault depends significantly on the skills of personnel involved in the elimination of failure, the complexity of the failure, from the physical condition of the employee.

7. Stage "Troubleshooting". The duration of the operation in General is determined by the same factors that operation "Troubleshooting".

8. The stage of the "health check". If with some probability resolved the problem, which was not required to return to the operation "Troubleshooting".

9. The stage of "engagement" - the final operation. The operation randomly and largely depends on the physical condition of the employee and alerting capabilities on the inclusion of a technical object RATM.

Algorithmically basic sequence of steps is an algorithm with branching, as in operation "health check" feature branching, representing transitions on previously executed operations. Themselves branching represent the deterministic part of the model.

Thus, given the basic sequence of steps associated with the recovery for the same object RATM, allowing for multiple runs to get razlichayushchei process from the time of failure of object until recovery taking into account random factors.

Every single "run" of the model will simulate two events:

- refusal object RATM;

- the recovery of the object RATM.

Each of these events will be calculated by the model time of occurrence:

- the moment of occurrence of the failure object RATM tOTK iis the execution result of the operation failure occurs";

the moment of recovery of the object RATM tvos iis defined as the sum of the results of the entire primary sequence of operations starting from operation failure occurs and ending operations "including":

where j, s, w - counts the number of returns to operations "Troubleshooting," Troubleshooting", "preparation", respectively.

the time of return, enacted regardless of the time of passage to a place of denial by the same procedure;

l, q, c is the number of executions of the respective operations, taking into account the probability of their recurrence, it always exceeds the number of repeated operations on the unit. The number of repetitions of transactions is played by branching operations.

Therefore, the length of time to recovery of the i-th failure or, in other words, the long-term is th i-th unhealthy state of the object RATM is defined as the difference between:

The model allows to calculate various implementations only one failure and one recovery object RATM, starting from a zero time. Re-run the model always starts from zero time, i.e. from the beginning of the simulation.

Each individual event generated by the model, is a separate implementation of the repair process of RATM objects on the plot, and the entire set of events is a statistical aggregate.

The result of the operation of the developed model is a set of time values to restore a single object RATM. All simulation results time to recovery of interest LIE in the area of Railways should be summarized in a table.

Table
The results of the simulation time to recovery of interest LIE in the area of Railways
No. of object RATMThe number of refusals object RATM,Time to restore each failure
12 3...
1TVoss 11TVoss 21TVoss 31...
2TVoss 12TVoss 22TVoss 32...
.....................
mTVoss 1mTVoss 2mTVoss 3m...

The treatment table is carried out by statistical methods. In this case the simulation results are considered as rap is esentative sample.

The average time to recovery on the part of the railway is the arithmetic mean of the times of recovery of RATM objects presented in the table.

Calculation formula for calculating the mean time to restore is:

The method of simulation of emergency recovery works in the sector of automation and telemechanics, wherein the permanent data about the area of Railways, including specifications used on site systems INTRODUCTION, technology maintenance and operation systems of railway automatics and TELEMECHANICS on the site, the equipment of the railroad, its configuration, the number and qualifications of personnel operating systems RATM on the site, the level and quantity of technical equipment for fault diagnosis and predating state systems INTRODUCTION, the presence of ways of the entrance (approach) to the place of failure, weather and climatic features of the region in which is located the site of the railway the roads are in the form of a set of elementary data arrays, each of which corresponds to the block of land on the segment or isolated area at the station, also administered General assistance data that includes the simulation time sufficient to obtain stable estimates with the front time to recovery technical means RATM at the site of Railways, after data entry start modeling, which consists in the formation of elementary random event - time intervals, coinciding with the different operations for each block on the stretch and isolated area on the station subject to the laws of distribution and persistent data about the area of Railways in the sequence of their occurrence with regard to the relationship in the implementation of maintenance and repair of hardware RATM on the site, including the failure occurs, a notification of a malfunction, a preliminary analysis of the problem, preparation, movement to and from fault, Troubleshooting, Troubleshooting, validation, efficiency, engagement, and subsequent the summation of elementary random events with a given probability of re-occurrence with the purpose of obtaining multiple implementations of time to recovery for each block on the stretch and isolated area at the station, of which by calculating the arithmetic mean of all realizations of time to restore all block sections and isolated parcels within the particular section of the Railways is determined by the average time to recovery technical means RATM on it.



 

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